Thursday, May 30, 2013
Randomness of saves
This fellow decided to simulate saves, and he shows that we should expect results all over the place, given enough trials.
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Little technical note: while he's probably reporting the correct saves and "blown saves" numbers, unfortunately, that's not the best thing to do. You get a blown save if the reliever gives up a lead? at ANY point in the game in which he otherwise would have qualified for a save. So, come into the game in the sixth inning with a 2 run lead (save situation) and give up a 3run HR = blown save. Even though the chance of him completing the game to earn a save was close to 0 percent. That is, he was not going to pitch four innings to earn that save. But, by pitching 1 or 2 innings, he now has the opportunity to blow that "save" situation.
So, in order to make the fair comparison, the author should have limited his save situations to those where he entered the game in the ninth inning. Obviously, now we are limiting ourselves to only the very best relief pitchers. But, for what he's doing, that's his focus anyway.
In any case, since he re-ran his sim to use 85% as his save conversion rate, he did fine there.
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