Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Ryan Zimmerman, two years later
After the 2011 season, Zimmerman signed an extension that began with the 2014 season. So, he was already signed for 2012 and 2013. At the time I said:
So, 75% of 5 WAR is 3.75 WAR. Ok, let’s make it 80% playing time, because, well, let’s cut the Nats a break here. We’re back to 4 WAR entering 2012. That would set his value at 6 years, 63MM$.
I love Ryan Zimmerman, and I think he’s terribly underrated, or at least underappreciated and underdiscussed. But 100MM$ for 6 years, two years out?
How did we do? In 2012, according to Fangraphs, he had just over 4 WAR and in 2013 he's going to finish close to 2.5 WAR. That's 6.5 WAR over the 2012-2013 years. Baseball Reference shows 7 WAR for 2012-2013 (if we give him a bit for the rest of this season).
I had originally said 3.75 + 3.25, which is... 7 WAR. I tried to be nice and suggest maybe it would be 4 + 3.5 for 7.5 WAR, which would have set his extension for 6/63, if signed when he did.
And now? Well, he's performed pretty much to expectation, which means that the 6/63 that I proposed two years ago for an extension starting in 2014 is still pretty much the same market value that we should expect from him, if he were to sign a free agent deal starting in 2014.
(And really, no one signs a 6/63 deal. He'd probably get the equivalent for 4 years, which is around 4/52.)
All that 2012-13 has done for us is reduce our uncertainty level we had following that 2011 season. I remember taking heat on Twitter from Nationals fans, because they were very happy with that extension.
This may sound like an "I told you so", but it's not. HISTORY has told us so. That's all I'm doing here really: telling you what history has already shown us. ?
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