Wednesday, September 25, 2019
Run Values… and productive outs
?Mike Trout has generated 63 more runs than the average batter. His 45 HR have generated +60 runs. This means that if you remove all of Trout's HR, he's still +3 runs above average. His 96 walks have generated +35 runs. Here's how much runs he's generated from each of his event categories.
You will notice that his triples have less run value than his doubles. This would happen if your triples are hit with bases empty, severely limiting their value.
Notably, Trout's outs have generated, on average -0.27 to -0.30 runs. In other words, there's nothing that different between how he gets an out.
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But, what about everyone else? Jason Castro has 40 ground outs, and those have cost him only -6.7 runs, or an average of -0.17 runs. This compares "favorably" to the league average of -0.30 runs per ground out. While the outs of Castro is still negative, he's not as negative as the league. And that's because he's getting ground outs when they cost the least, and/or, when they can also move runners over (i.e., "productive" outs, or better termed less-costly outs).
Keon Broxton leads in least costly air outs at -0.22 runs each (compared to league average of -0.28). Again, that's either because he's hitting them when they are less costly (no runners on, or with two outs) or they are advancing runners (like on a SF).
You also have hitters that are creating the most costly outs. Kiner-Falefa and Tyler Flowers are at -0.39 runs per ground out, while Tyler Flowers is at -0.36 runs per air out.
Even strikeouts are not immune: Ender Inciarte is at -0.37 runs per strikeout, which usually happens because of Ks with runners on third and less than two outs, while Jose Igelesias is at only -0.24 runs per strikeout, for the opposite reason: he's not K-ing with runners on 3B and less than two outs. League average is -0.29 runs.
If there's interest in this, then we can spin out leaderboards for it. If not, then I can just run this as the mood strikes. You tell me.
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