Thursday, December 05, 2013
Quirks in the win expectancy table
This was highlighted back when The Book came out in 2006. As for further explanation, go here:
http://tangotiger.net/retrosheet/reports/re.htm
(You'll also see a similar table in The Book, probably Table 8 or Table 9.)
Anyway, so all I do is apply those run expectancies for every possible bottom of 9th situation. If you are down by 1 with 2 outs, and you have a runner on third base, then you tie if you score 1 in the inning and you win if you score more than 1.
According to the above link, you would score 1 (and send to extra innings, where you win half the time) .205 times. You would score 2+ runs arund .069 times.
Total win%? .069 + .205/2 = 17%.
Ok, now in the 9th inning, those run frequencies ARE WRONG. That's because it's end-of-game scenario, so things that the defense might normally do (let the runner on third score to get a DP) they would NEVER do if that run was valuable.
If someone wants to help everyone out, re-run the above chart, but only when a runner on base represents the tie-ing or winning run. I would bet you'll find a drastic difference in run expectancy by the 24 base-out states (over and above simply that you have better pitchers in those scenarios).
?
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