Saturday, March 26, 2016
Quirks in the bottom of the 9th
?If you look at win expectancy tables in the bottom of the 9th, you will see some quirks. Here's a good one. From 1957-2006, which batting team was more likely to win:
- Bases empty, tie-ing run at bat
- At least one runner on base, tie-ing run at bat
Now, you would think this is easy: they should either be identical, or the first scenario will generate slightly more wins for the batting team. With more runners on base, the more bases the defense can get an out. And with 0 or 1 out, this is true.
But with two outs, the reverse happens. With bases empty, the batting team wins 3.5% of the time. But with at least one runner on base, the batting team wins around 4% of the time. Even though in both cases, the tie-ing run is at the plate. What does this mean? Well,with two outs, the defense should allow all runners on base to automatically score. Because that will turn a 4% chance of winning for the batting team DOWN to 3.5%.
Now, maybe it's a selection bias, that the team that is down by 1 with bases empty and 2 outs is a worse batting team (or facing a better defense) than the other team. Or this is random variation. Who knows.
I can tell you that in The Book, which uses a pure probability method, the odds of the batting team winning with bases empty, 2 outs, bottom 9th, and tie-ing run at the plate is 5.2%, while with at least one runner on base, it's roughly the same to slightly less. That is, the probability method matches our expectations more than reality.
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