Tuesday, September 19, 2023
Platoon Splits by Pitch Type
As we know, platoon splits by handedness are a real thing. RH batters much prefer to face LH pitchers, than they do RH pitchers. And the same is true with LH batters much preferring to face RH pitchers than LH pitchers. This was most obvious when LHH Larry Walker came to bat to face his friend and former teammate LHP Randy Johnson. Johnson has a sidearm kind of delivery, and so when his slider comes in hard on the LH batter, and breaks away, it becomes an impossible pitch to hit. So, same-handed sliders are great for pitchers and terrible for batters. We'll talk about that in a minute.
Now, is it necessarily true of ALL pitches thrown. Pitches break in or away, or stay up, or drop down. They come in at different speeds. Surely not every pitch has the same platoon advantage. And is it even possible that some pitches have a reverse platoon split?
Glad you asked.
Changeups and Curves
Righthanded Starting Pitchers show large reverse platoon splits with their changeups and curves. This means that RH batters perform better than LH batters against RH starting pitchers, when those pitchers are throwing changeups and curves.
RHH are around +.18 runs per 100 pitches against RH Starting Pitchers against the changeups and curves, while LHH are around -.14 runs per 100 pitches against those same pitchers. That is a reverse split of .32 runs. The normal split for a RHP is .19 runs. So, this shows a net effect of .51 runs from the average split.
RH Relief pitchers also show a deviation of this extreme.
As does LH Starting Pitchers. And LH Relief Pitchers.
While the normal platoon advantage for the pitcher is against same-handed batters, this is not true with the curves and changeups. And so, pitchers should be throwing far more curves and changeups against opposite-handed batters.
So two questions: why is this true? And do they?
Changeups and curves are the slowest of the pitches thrown. Since changeups tail away from opposite-handed batters, the likely conclusion is that the pitchers like to tail slow pitches away from the batter.
On the other hand, curveballs hooks into opposite-handed batters, but also have a big drop. And so the likely conclusion is that those batters might be more handcuffed on those dropping pitches that break-in.
Sliders
How about the other pitches? Sliders show a tremendous platoon advantage, which is basically why most LHH would sit a game against Randy Johnson. This advantage is most true for LH relief pitchers. LH batters are minus 0.88 runs per 100 pitches, while RH batters are +0.59. This is a massive 1.47 run advantage. While LH pitchers enjoy a tremendous platoon advantage to begin with (+0.70), this far exceeds that. So, it's pretty clear here: LH relief pitchers need to throw their sliders against LH batters (or more generally, there's a tremendous same-handed advantage with the slider).
Again, same two questions: why is this true? And do they?
Sliders tail away from the same-handed batter, but not as much as the curve. And it drops somewhat, but not as much as the curve. But it's thrown some 5 mph faster. So, it seems a bit strange that a pitch that follows a similar kind of path as the curve, but faster, would suddenly have a very very different platoon split. I suppose it's really about the drop of the curve, and that supercedes the horizontal movement. Sliders can be considered as a reverse-changeup. And so, just as the slider confers an advantage to the pitcher against same-handed batters, then the changeup confers an advantage to the pitcher against opposite-handed batters (aka reverse split advantage).
Since sliders and curves are in roughly a similar family of pitches, it would seem almost a necessity that a pitcher develop both a slider and a curve. And they should throw the slider predominantly to same-handed batters, and curves to opposite-handed batters.
Do they?
Max / McCullers
Max Scherzer is a good example of a pitcher who gets it. Against same-handed (RH) batters, he throws the slider 39% of the time, and the curve only 5% of the time. This is since 2020. Against opposite-handed (LH) batters, his slider is all the way down to under 1% and his curve is up 15%. Max has figured out the platoon advantage. He makes up for the gap by throwing his cutter almost exclusively to opposite-handed batters (18% of his pitches against LHH are cutters, and only 1% against RHH are cutters).
The most extreme example is Lance McCullers. Against same-handed (RH) batters, he throws 36% sliders and 6% curves. Against opposite-handed, it's 6% sliders and 48% curves. So, McCullers has also figured it out: throw curves against LHH and sliders against RHH. And where does he make up the difference? The changeup, which we also learned has reverse platoon-splits. And, McCullers must have figured it out on his own: 10% of his pitches against same-handed are changeups, while 21% against opposite-handed are changeups.
Ok, so Max/McCullers have figured it out. Have all pitchers? Surprisingly, no. There's very very few who have not, but the one who stands out is Zack Wheeler. He's at 20% slider and 9% curve against same-handed (RH) batters, and it goes UP to 29% sliders (and 14% curves). Now, how is such a successful pitcher able to pull this off? In his case, his "slider" is actually the traditional gyro-slider as well as the sweeper-slider. It's most obvious if we look at it this way (click to embiggen), with Wheeler on the left, and Scherzer on the right (2023 data).
Wheeler uses his sweeper-slider the way Scherzer uses his slider. They use their curve the same. And Wheeler's gyro-slider is more akin to Scherzer's cutter. So for all those folks asking why split up sweeper-slider from gyro-slider: we're just reflecting what MLB pitchers are doing and how they are behaving. We're not inventing anything new here. We're simply better tagging and organizing data. Without doing that, it would seem that Wheeler was clueless as to the splits of sliders. Instead, he is totally telling us that he gets it, the same way that Max gets it.
So chances are, if I were to go thru the very few pitchers who "didn't get it", they likely have some nuance to their pitches that shows they almost certainly get it.
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