Friday, January 15, 2016
Pitchouts
?Ben does a terrific job giving us the lowdown on pitchouts.
He shows that when there's no pitchout and the runner tries to steal, the success rate for the runner is 73%. If we make it +.20 runs for SB and -.45 for CS, that's a run value of +.025 runs. With the pitchout, the runner is safe only 48% of the time, making it worth -.138 runs. That's one heckavu great deal. Except you also are giving the batter an extra ball.
However, what if there is a pitchout and the runner stays put? Well, in that case, the batter benefits. Normally, Ben says you'd have .64 strikes and .36 balls. If we give strikes a run value of -.05 for the batter and balls +.05 runs (I'm assuming you don't throw pitchouts come early in the count), then normally we'd have -.014 runs. But the pitchout is an automatic +.05 runs or a switch of +.064 runs.
At this point, I'd need some more data. The pitchout-stealAttempt is -.138 runs for the runner and a fraction of +.064 runs for the batter (because sometimes the runner makes the third out on the pitchout). For discussion purposes, let's say that works all out to -.09 runs. The pitchout-nonSBattempt is +.064 runs. That basically sets the breakeven point at around 40%. That's how often a manager has to be right that the runner is going. Which is crazy high.
Of course, you've have to rework all the numbers because you are going to pitchout with more likely runners who are better percentage runners than what we're assuming up there. Anyway, great job by Ben to bring it out in the open. And there's some work out there for an aspiring saberist to take the groundwork that's been laid and come up with better numbers.
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