Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Pitch-component based ERA estimator
?Chris continues his good work.
So, on a per pitch basis, this is what helps to keep ERA down, in order:
swing-and-miss
take-in-strike-zone
fouls
What hurts:
contact-in-strike-zone x FB rate
balls-in-play
Anyway, I think that's what he's got. And it looks like his out-of-sample tests shows that he's onto something, especially for pitchers with limited opportunities. At some point, knowing all these components doesn't help, and what we end up caring about is actual production.
We talked about this in other aspects, notably in hockey, which is, at what point does actual goals scored and allowed tell us more than shots for and against. Shots is a proxy for talent, as is goals. And the reason shots is a good proxy at limited playing time is because there are 10x shots relative to goals. Similarly, there are nearly 4 pitches per batter faced, so whatever is lacking at the pitch-level, it makes up for it by quantity... to a point.
Anyway, fascinating stuff by Chris.
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