Friday, February 13, 2015
Jon Stewart’s BABIP
?Clayton Kershaw has SOME influence on his BABIP. But not total. He may have a career .271 BABIP, but chances are greater than 50% that in 2015, it'll be higher than .271. But because he has SOME influence, some people think that anything we OBSERVE with regards to BABIP is a true reflection of Kershaw.
Jon Stewart announced his retirement, and Viacom stock dropped 1.5%. So, some yahoos make the 100% causative connection that Jon Stewart is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Of course, since then, the price of Viacom stock is back at its pre-announcement price. Basically, just because there is SOME relationship doesn't mean you get to ignore the most important element in all observations: random variation. I know, I know, you hate to admit the truth, and you dearly would love to think there's meaning in everything that happens. That meaning is called sh!t. That's what happens.
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