Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Imminent Strike 3
The best 2-strike batters are typically the best batters overall. Since 2020, Freddie Freeman leads all batters in Batting Run value (+192 runs) overall, as well as when limited to two strikes (+71 runs). Some batters get their entire value by being a good 2-strike batter, like Marcus Semien: +50 runs with 2-strikes, while being +58 runs overall.
What I am interested in is the Imminent Strike 3. What is that? The definition I've created is simple enough: the batter has 2 strikes, and the upcoming pitch is going to enter The Heart of the Plate. If the batter takes that pitch, it will be strike 3. So, the batter needs to swing at that pitch.
There are four basic results that I've broken down the Imminent Strike 3:
- Poorly Accepted - Called Strike 3
- Poorly Avoided - Swing and Miss, or Batted Ball Out
- Neutrally Accepted - Fouled Off
- Smartly Avoided - Base Hit
We can of course break things down even more, by looking at xwOBA, which we can do next time.
Since 2020, Victor Reyes has never received a called strike 3, when the pitch enters The Heart of the Plate: he had 191 Imminent Strike 3, and zero called strikes. Among the power hitters, Jose Ramirez is the model batter, with 519 Imminent Strike 3 and only five Poorly Accepted (called strike 3). In terms of Do Something, Ramirez clearly was going to do something, and not just accept a strike 3 down the middle.
On the flip side are batters who clearly need to learn. Elly De La Cruz had 111 Imminent Strike 3, with 21 of those as called strikes. The league average is 6% and EDLC is at 19%. Julio Rodriguez is the model for these batters, with 281 Imminent Strike 3, of which 32, or 11% are Poorly Accepted (called strike 3).
How about the leaders/trailers in Poorly Avoided (out while swinging)? The league average is 41%, with Nick Allen leading at 55%. Among the good batters at the top is Joey Votto, at 47% Poorly Avoided. Batters with the fewest Poorly Avoided were Jordan Walker (only 24%), with Nathaniel Lowe in the top 10 at 33%.
The Neutrally Accepted is, as the name implies, Neutral: you foul off a pitch, and it's still 2 strikes. Maybe it's not so neutral, since the pitch is in The Heart of the Plate, and so, there is some advantage is making sure you live to fight another pitch. Then again, it's the best pitch you will see on Strike 2, so, maybe not so good? Anyway, I guess that makes it the definition of neutral. Oswaldo Cabrera at 50% at one end, and Esteury Ruiz at 21% at the other end. Make of it what you will.
Finally, Smartly Avoided the Imminent Strike 3, with a base hit: Oscar Gonzalez with 23%. Among the good batters are Michael Brantley, also at 23%. Marvin Gonzalez only had 6% Smartly Avoided plays at Imminent Strike 3. Indeed, it is really hard to be an overall good hitter while having so few Smartly Avoided plays in this category. You have to get all the way to 11% Smartly Avoided (league average is 15%) with Sean Murphy to find a good overall batter.
(Click chart to embiggen) Does all of this mean anything? Or is it just another interesting, but ultimately useless, categorization? Juan Soto is overall at +158 runs since 2020, which is third highest after Freeman and Aaron Judge, with a very high +39 runs with two strikes. But he is minus 11 runs with Immiment Strike 3. Does this suggest that Juan Soto, a genius hitter, can be beat? Maybe. It does seem that you could challenge Soto with two strikes.
Kyle Tucker and Matt Olson on the other hand are the best batters in baseball when Imminent Strike 3. They should not be challenged. Even among the unchallengeable, which includes Aaron Judge and Austin Riley we find Teoscar Hernandez: he is at almost plus 30 runs when the pitch is in The Heart of the Plate, while being almost minus 30 runs when the pitch is NOT in The Heart of the Plate. Teoscar is an overall above average batter who has been reduced to a league average batter with two strikes. So it would seem that he should not be challenged with two strikes.
Anyway, as I said, I don't know if this means anything. I don't know that it has to mean anything. But, this is just another way of organizing data, which is really half the battle with sabermetrics. The other half is giving it meaning. And the last ten percent is making sure the math checks out.
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