Monday, March 17, 2014
How risk-averse are NFL coaches?
?Neil points out that in the NFL, the success rate of 2-point conversions is around 50%, while the success rate of the gimme is naturally almost 100%. Since the expected value (EV) of the two plays is identical, in the long-run, you should have no reason to prefer one over the other.
Of course, football is not played in the long-run, so, coaches naturally feel more risk-averse, and given the same payoff, they'll go for the one with less variance. Buuuut, Neil asks an interesting question: at what point would the NFL coach be just as likely to go for 2 as to go for 1 (overall)? That is, if you have 1300 TD in a season, then what success rate on the single-point kick would make a coach want to kick 650 times and go for two 650 times?
In other words, EXACTLY how risk-averse is he? Would a 95% success rate on the point after alter his thinking? 90%? 80%?
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