Sunday, December 21, 2014
How much parity should there be?
?According to one sports book, the (unvigged) lines of the top 8 MLB teams to win the World Series stands at 50%. This means that choosing the Dodgers, Redsox, Nats, Cubs, Tigers, Angels, and (two of) Giants/Mariners/Cards as a group is a flip-the-coin bet as choosing that the winner will come from the other group of 22.
How much parity do we want? In tennis for example, at the height of Federer/Nadal/Djokovic, the 50/50 odds would be to choose the top two of those guys as one group, and then choose the third seed that day and EVERY SINGLE OTHER PLAYER in the tournament for the other group. (Something like that.) Which I think is GREAT for tennis. Imagine tennis with no clear favorites? Ugh for a fan like me, but maybe it's great for a huge tennis fan?
I don't follow NCAA, but I presume the top 4 seeds end up winning something like 75% of the tournaments? Somebody can chime in here on that.
Anyway, so that's the question: how much parity do we want? In other words, how many top teams in group 1 would you want to match up against every other team in group 2, in order for it to be an even bet?
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