Monday, December 30, 2019
How low can replacement level go?
?I posted a couple of charts on Twitter.
I simply broke up players into "regulars" and "bench" players based on how much they played. The regulars represented 80% of the playing time, and their Individualized Won-Loss Record was .550. The bench players represented 20% of the playing time, and their Indis was .300.
And simple math of 80% of .550 plus 20% of .300 equals .500. In other words, an average team is made up of average regulars and average bench players. But if you had a team that was ONLY regulars, that team would win 55% of the time (or 89 wins).
From 1998-2019 (32 seasons), there has been 660 team seasons (32 seasons x 30 teams). 178 of those have a .550+ record. That's 27% of all teams. If we take the top 25% of all teams (165 teams), they have a .556+ record.
If we take the top 50% of those 660 teams, those 330 teams ranged in win% from .500 to .716, for an average of .561.
In other words, we can reasonably make this statement: if you had a team of "average regulars", such a team would be equal to the top half of the teams. And if you assume these players represent 80% of the league, the remaining 20% would be the bench players. In this illustration:
.500 = .8 x .561 + .2 x Bench
Solving for Bench = .256
If the regulars represents 75% of all players, Bench = .317
Therefore, I think we can get a reasonable sense as to what the Bench level is by taking this approach. Not only here, for MLB, but for ANY league. I wouldn't want to do it for a single year, but a 20 year rolling period? That might work.
Anyway, I just had the thought, and I'm throwing it out there for the aspiring saberists to chew on.
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