Wednesday, November 18, 2015
How do you win at Daily Games?
?Off the top of my head, and having never played these games, but I can take a good guess...
There are two main ingredients:
1. knowing the starting lineups
2. knowing the ownership rate of all the athletes
More tepid ingredients:
3. a forecasting system that is better than Marcel (at least for rookies)
4. knowing the matchups (who's playing against who, and where)
From there, you write a simulator.
5. You come up with a distribution of points for each player (which undoubtedly you can create a function for, at least one function for nonpitchers and one for pitchers).
6. You create an algorithm where you can, and you do a brute force (running a thousand sims of various combinations) where you can't
This is the kind of thing I did when I ran The Forecaster's Challenge a few years ago. I presume there are Daily Sites out there that already do this for us? Feel free to post their links in this thread.
Anything else obvious, and less obvious, that I missed?
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