Wednesday, July 26, 2023
How to use the Cy Young Predictor
In order to use the Cy Young Points for a Cy Young Prediction, you do NOT base it on: if the season ended today.
After all, if Connor McDavid missed the first ten games of the season, he'd still be the favorite to win the scoring race. This is because we are predicting the rest-of-season stats based on something than other current-season stats. And the same would apply for the MVP race. If you were to construct a Hart Trophy Points system using current season data, McDavid would have 0 after ten games in this illustration. But a Hart Trophy PREDICTION system would naturally have to first use rest-of-season predicted data FIRST, and THEN you apply your Hart Trophy Points system.
This is why Spencer Strider has been the favorite to win the Cy Young since just before the all-star break. Even though he is currently sixth in Cy Young Points. Strider is simply much better than anyone else in the Cy Young race, and he's given them a headstart, that's all that's happening here. Use the Steamer forecasts to get his rest-of-season stats to get his future Cy Young Points, and add that to his current Cy Young Points.
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