Tuesday, January 06, 2015
HOF project for aspiring saberist
?This is pretty straightforward, but I'll promise you will have fun trying it. I'd do it myself, but I think I'll have more fun sending this out to everyone.
1. For every year, find the number of players that were voted into the HOF, or reached 60-74% in their last year on the ballot. That's the BIGGIES_OFF.
2. For the subsequent year, find the number of FIRST-TIME players that reached 60% or more. That's the BIGGIES_ON.
3. Find the difference between the two: NET_BIGGIES.
For example, in 2014, we had 3 guys voted into the HOF and one guy get to 61% in his last year. That's 4 BIGGIES_OFF. This year, we had 3 FIRST-TIME guys voted in (and no one in their last year reaching the 60%+ level). That's 3 BIGGIES_ON for a NET_BIGGIES of -1.
In 2016, we expect one guy to get voted in as first timer (Junior), none to get over 60%, and we had 4 guys clear off the ballot, for a NET_BIGGIES of -3.
4. Look for all past occurrences of minus 3 NET_BIGGIES.
5. How did the top 5 returnees do? Did they gain around 10% points? 15? 5? 20? What?
Show us what you've got.
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