Friday, February 27, 2015
HOF Model
?Ben (fivetwentyone) describes his HOF model.
One thing to be clear is that the "tango model" is really just a "base model". You can tell that by the Lee Smith "prediction". Anyone that missed Lee Smith by 10 points really has a "silly" model, not really wanting to account for the historical fact that Lee Smith gets huge private support. In my case, I had suggested putting in manual adjustments for a few players, including Lee Smith, if the model doesn't look at historical results.
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