Tuesday, March 11, 2014
History of Corsi
?For those interested in such things, here's a good article that discusses where it comes from, its uses and limitations.
Back when I was doing work for NHL teams (started during the 2006 Olympics through to 2008), doing shots differential was the centerpiece to the service package. We didn't give it a cutesy name, though. I think I just called it Shots+/-. And of course, I did WOWY with it (though in that case, we called it Synergy... I think that was a helpful name). Anyway, fun stuff.
The huge advantage is simply that you have more than 10x the number of events with shots than you do with goals. For any single shot, it has more random variation than you have for any single goal. But the huge equalizer to random variation is volume. And given the choice between the two (not that you have to choose one or the other), shots events is better to have than goal events.
In terms of future goals, past shots is a better proxy for goals, than past goals.
Until a point. Because at some point, goals are better to know than shots. But both are always good.
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