Monday, November 23, 2015
Eventual albatross articles on Cano
?Jeff almost goes there, maybe crosses over that line, but does a good job overall in the article so I'll give him a pass.
Because Cano signed a 10 year deal, and because he's being paid the same amount each year, his contract will look bad at some point. You have to evaluate the deal based on the idea that it was back-loaded to begin with.
The first two years of his deal, he received 48MM$, but the Mariners would have expected 64MM$ in production, and getting to defer 16MM$ of that. According to Fangraphs, in his first two years, he generated 57MM$ in production. Do you want to say that he was +9MM$ in value or -7MM$ in his first two years? I'm going with the latter.
So, his remaining years is 8 years and 176 MM$, not 8/192. It's really important to understand the idea that he's getting deferred payments, even though his salary is constant. This would be more obvious if he had signed a 40 years 240MM$ deal (though we'd have to talk about discount rates and present value, which is another thing that is being completely ignored... but, one step at a time).
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