Wednesday, May 08, 2013
Day-to-day PECOTA
Colin announced that they are now out. Similar to what I did with Steamer, I did a quick sniff test. Unfortunately, I'm left with some questions, and maybe you guys can take up the mantle here. As last time, I chose a player who was far above his career norm, so, I settled on Carlos Gomez.
My first question is on his pre-season forecast of TAv of .240. As best as I can figure, his career TAv after the 2012 season was .240. But, seeing that he's still near his peak (hence positive age adjustment, or at least not negative), his 2011 and 2012 seasons are both above his career norm (hence more weight), I'd have expected a forecast of above .240. The Marcels would have suggested somewhere around .248. But PECOTA had him at .240 forecast entering 2013, identical to his career total. So, that's a bit of a head-scratcher.
Anyway, putting in his 2013 season so far, and back-of-envelope would suggest .261 for rest-of-season. PECOTA has him at .246 rest-of-season.? Which, coincidentally, is also his career TAv (.246). So, I don't see how that's possible, that from 2011-present (on 829 PA), his TAv is .272, his overall career is .246, and we'd forecast .246.
Unless PECOTA really hates speedsters. Maybe Kincaid or another Straight Arrow reader will try to cast some light on this. Here's the data I used, as published on BPro's site:
Year PA Tav
2013 119 0.354
2012 452 0.267
2011 258 0.244
2010 318 0.231
2009 349 0.222
2008 614 0.236
2007 139 0.232
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