Monday, August 24, 2015
Correlation v Causation
?What leads to wins? Talent and random variation. That, and only, that. Talent is a causative agent. It looks like this:
Talent + Luck -> Wins
What leads to payroll? Talent, (mis)management, and service time. That, and only, that. Talent is a causative agent, but it's linked with service time, specifically when the player qualifies for arbitration and free agency. And also how management figures out how to evaluate that talent (both now, and in the future). It looks like this:
Talent*Service*Management -> Payroll
So, what happens when you run a correlation of Wins and Payroll? Neither is a causative agent to the other. Wins doesn't lead to payroll, and payroll doesn't lead to wins. That they have a relationship is strictly a point of correlation.
In order to properly evaluate Wins and Payroll, you need to look at the causative agents themselves.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 151 pages 1 2 3 > Last ›Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date
FORUM TOPICS
Jul 12 15:22 MarcelsApr 16 14:31 Pitch Count Estimators
Mar 12 16:30 Appendix to THE BOOK - THE GORY DETAILS
Jan 29 09:41 NFL Overtime Idea
Jan 22 14:48 Weighting Years for NFL Player Projections
Jan 21 09:18 positional runs in pythagenpat
Oct 20 15:57 DRS: FG vs. BB-Ref
Apr 12 09:43 What if baseball was like survivor? You are eliminated ...
Nov 24 09:57 Win Attribution to offense, pitching, and fielding at the game level (prototype method)
Jul 13 10:20 How to watch great past games without spoilers