Friday, November 29, 2013
Poll: Which HOF-eligible player had the more outstanding career?
Same thing like last year: pick a player in a head-to-head matchup.
Poll
Poll
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Poll: Do I care about the score when evaluating performances?
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Poll: Strasburg, relative to my expectations has been…
Monday, June 24, 2013
Poll: 6 innings at 60% of league average or 8 innings at [blank] of league average?
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Poll: You have 50MM$ to spend on all your pitchers. Which of these configurations do you prefer?
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Poll: (Semi-finals) You have 100MM$ burning in your pocket. Who do you sign for the next four years?
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Poll: (part 2) You have 100MM$ burning in your pocket. Who do you sign for the next four years?
Poll 5: Cain, Hamels, Price?
Poll 6: Felix, Verlander?
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Poll: You have 100MM$ burning in your pocket. Who do you sign for the next four years?
Poll 1: Latos, Sale or Stras??
Poll 2: Cueto, Darvish, or Felix??
Poll 3: Gio, Medlen, or Price??
Poll 4: Cain, Greinke, or Hamels??
Note: my old poll software is now blocked at the office, so I will be taking advantage of my forum poll capabilities. I *think* you have to register to vote.Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Crowdsource v Actual Contracts
Fangraphs has an update, with 55 players listed.
If you sort the players by how much total contract they were supposed to get, you get this breakdown:
Top 6 (Greinke, Hamilton, Bourn, Swisher, Upton, Sanchez):
forecasted for 441MM$ (28 years), actually received 531MM$ (29 yeras)
Bottom 15 (forecasted for 10MM$ or less):
forecast 102MM$ (21 years), actual 59MM$ (19 years)
Everyone else (34 players):
forecast 735MM$ (79 years), actual 581MM$ (67 years)
***
Overall, they forecasted for 129 years, but actually only got 115 years. The AAV was forecast at 9.9, and was actually 10.2.
So, the crowd did pretty well, overall, but there was some problems in terms of the spread of those forecasts.
I think the problem is best shown with Greinke. I presume that it would have been hard to get it wrong on the upside. He got 6x24.5. I don't think you could have guessed more than 7x25. But on the downside, I think it's pretty easy to suggest he might have gotten 4 or 5 years and at 16 to 20 per year. And for big contracts like this, it's almost certain that the top-end would come out better.
Same at the bottom I think. A few excited forecasts, and that throws the whole thing out of whack. Then you had new information coming in (Liriano, etc), and, we're in a tough spot here to judge forecasts with more information than they had at the time.
Overall, it gives us some hope.?
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