Tangotiger Blog

Tuesday, April 07, 2020

To login to this site, and register an account

​Since the required upgrade to my blog ... yada yada yada ... so here's what you have to do for the time being.

1. Look at the sidebar of "Latest Comments..." and click any of them.  Or just click this random one.
2. Click the MY ACCOUNT in the top right corner
3. Login if you are a current member (or click member registration for new members)

I know I should fix this. And it's been a few months already. But in terms of priority, I'm not there yet. 

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Jeopardy Round 4: Why those bets?

?Spoiler.  Jump the line to see the results.

Read More

Wednesday, January 08, 2020

?Jeopardy: Why did Jennings bet 3800, and Holzhauer 15300?

Ken had 40,000 in the locked bank, and he could stake up to 21,000.  He put up 3800.  He lost, so he was left with 57,400.

James had 44,314 in the locked bank, and he could stake up to 22,800.  He put up 15,300.  He won, but had he lost, he'd be left with 51,814.

If James thought he'd lose, he was hoping that Ken would also lose, and so betting 15,300 means James is hoping for Ken to bet 9,387 or more.

If James thought he'd win, and if Ken managed to win, betting 15,300 means James is hoping for Ken to betting the full amount.

So, to Ken: James is going to assume you are going all-in.  In that case, you have no chance to beat him if he's ahead and he gets the right answer.  Knowing that he would bet 15,300 (which we now know he would have done) means that Ken should have bet 9,385.

Did I get all that right?

Monday, June 03, 2019

Game Theory: Why did Holzhauer bet 1399$?

?The third place guy had 11,000.  If he bet it all, he'd be at 22,000.  Since James was at 23,400, losing 1399 would put him at 22,001.

The first place was at 26,600.  That person would have to bet 20,201, on the expectation that James would bet the whole 23,400.  23,400 x 2 = 46,800.  26,600 + 20,201 = 46,801.

Now, had she figured that James would have bet 1399, she wouldn't have bet anything!  And so, whether she won or lost, she'd win!

So James was betting that she would not account for the third place person.  Quite the bet!

Friday, November 23, 2018

Beatles White Album: All the songs ranked one through thirty, by the Straight Arrow Voters

?In a series of 23 polls, I asked the Straight Arrow Voters to pick their favorite Beatles song. The clear winner was While My Guitar Gently Weeps. It went head-to-head against these six songs below. If I give "Weeps" a value of 100, I can assign a value to its direct competition as a fraction of that number. For example, in the Final round, Weeps is ahead of Back In the USSR by a 64% to 21% lead, meaning "USSR" is about one-third of Weeps, which we give a value of 100. So, USSR gets 33. Here's the direct competitors to Weeps, ranked:

• 47 Blackbird 
• 33 Back In The USSR 
• 16 Revolution 1 
• 14 I’m So Tired 
• 3 Savoy Truffle 
• 3 Wild Honey Pie

EACH of those songs also had a direct competition. Blackbird for example beat out Dear Prudence 51-40, meaning Dear Prudence is about 80% of Blackbird. Since we established Blackbird at 47, that makes Dear Prudence 37. We can even estimate that had Dear Prudence gone head to head with Weeps, it would have lost 100-37, or about 73-27. We can keep doing this chaining, and we end up with these results: 

1. 100 While My Guitar Gently Weeps 
2. 47 Blackbird 
3. 37 Dear Prudence 
4. 33 Back In The USSR 
5. 31 Helter Skelter 
6. 30 Happiness Is A Warm Gun 
7. 21 Rocky Raccoon 
8. 20 Ob-La-Di, Ob-La-Da 
9. 16 Revolution 1 
10. 14 I’m So Tired 
11. 12 Revolution 9 
12. 12 Birthday 
13. 10 Julia 
14. 10 Why Don’t We Do It In The Road? 
15. 8 Glass Onion 
16. 8 Martha My Dear 
17. 8 The Continuing Story Of Bungalow Bill 
18. 8 I Will 
19. 7 Sexy Sadie 
20. 7 Don’t Pass Me By 
21. 7 Yer Blues 
22. 7 Cry Baby Cry 
23. 6 Mother Nature’s Son 
24. 6 Everybody’s Got Something To Hide But Me And My Monkey 
25. 4 Good Night 
26. 3 Savoy Truffle 
27. 3 Wild Honey Pie 
28. 3 Honey Pie 
29. 2 Piggies 
30. 1 Long, Long, Long

I wouldn't read too much into results where they are within 1-5 percentage points.

Thursday, June 07, 2018

NYC Subway Wait Times

?The genius behind Gambletron2000 puts his talent and shares  his work on the wait times for NYC Subway.

Sunday, September 11, 2016

Rediscovering Star Trek Voyager, for the first time

?I am not totally "that guy" that Shatner parodied in the classic SNL skit.  I am partly that guy.  I always wince when he gets the episode number wrong for Enemy Within.  When I was a kid, I knew all the episodes by name, number, plot.  I also new every single baseball card by their number.  That stopped at some point, some time after high school.  I guess I "got a life".

So when I decided to show my kid Star Trek, it was easy on Netflix for the classic series.  I knew I was going to show him City on the Edge, Tribbles, Amok Time, Mirror Mirror, and among many others, yes, The Enemy Within.  When it came time for Next Generation, I knew Best of Both Worlds would be front and center, along with anything Q.  Even Deep Space Nine, I showed him the Tribbles one.

But Voyager?  For months I've been ignoring it, mostly because, well... I don't have any memories of it.  Let me tell you the entirety of my recollection of it: (1) one plot, centered around Janeway and Chakotay hopelessly marooned, (2) one scene, about Paris charged with murder, with the penality of reliving the murder from the viewpoint of the victim, (3) one line "I notice your pupils dilating when you look at me".  That's it, that's all of it.  I even thought Seven of Nine was part of the crew from the beginning.  Given that she came on halfway I see, this means that I must have seen a several seasons worth.  All gone.

Enter IMDB.com and its episode ranking.  I love that stuff, as you guys know when all my constant surveys, most notably with the Fans Scouting Report (coming soon!).  I decided to look for all the top ranked episodes and show them to my kid.  The Doctor is a hologram!  Right, I forgot, but then remembered him in First Contact.  And darn is he funny, which means that since my kid loves comedy, I had to find episodes centered around him.

And man, are some of these episodes brilliant, just brilliant.  I can talk about the individual ones I saw in the comments.  More importantly is that Netflix is missing opportunities here to better highlight individual episodes.  There's several hundreds of Star Trek episodes out there, and there should be staples.  I've never seen a single scene from the Bakula series, even though I love Bakula.  I'm looking forward to discovering that for the first time.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Black Panther

?What a terrific article on Black Panther, Marvel, and the future.  My kid and I thoroughly enjoyed Captain America Civil War, and Panther was definitely one of the highlights.

Tuesday, April 05, 2016

Slow death of Chief Wahoo

Here's another nail in the coffin.  As an aside: how many nails do we need for this coffin? 

When I look at social change in USA, I'm always thinking "well, this is what we went through in Canada twenty years ago".  You'd think people would learn from others, and simply accelerate their thinking.  But it seems, no, everyone has to actually grow into the right(*) position, that they can't accelerate to a point.  Or we have a revolution, and instead of accelerating, you simply jump to where the right spot is. 

"In every revolution, there is one man with a vision."

-- Jerome Bixby (through William Shatner, as Capt Kirk, to the uneasily-evil Mr Spock, played by Leonard Nimoy)

(*) Yes, some things are right and wrong.

Friday, March 25, 2016

Viewers and Critics can’t agree on their Superman/Batman movies

?According to Rotten Tomatoes, viewers and critics, overall, agree on their Superman/Batman movies.  Of the 16 movies, critics liked 63%, while viewers liked 65%.  But individually, they see their comic book movies much differently.  They all agree on how great the Batman trilogy was, as well as the first Donner Superman.They all agree on the franchise-ending Batman and Superman movies (the last two for Batman in the 1990s and the last two for Superman in the 1980s).

It's the in-between that show us what kind of movies fans will accept and critics won't, and vice-versa.  Nothing is more apparent as to what fans want and critics hate than Batman v Superman, where 74% viewers like it (above average for a Batman or Superman movie) and 30% critics like it (far below average).  That followed Man Of Steel (76% for viewers, 56% for critics).  

On the flip side, what critics liked or can tolerate more than fans: Batman from 1966, which we'll set aside, Superman with Routh, and Superman II.  As Kevin Smith said of Superman/Routh movie: how can you make a Superman movie, and  not have Superman punch anything.

(click to enlarge)

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Should USA be split into three nations?

?In Canada, we have a wide shift in party support.  It's clear in Canada, there's no "party first".  And in Canada, we don't have a tradition of a two-party system.  We have new party forming, alliances being made, established parties dying.  It's quite breathtaking.  Here's what it looks like:

If there's one sorta constant, it's the Liberal Party (red line).  You can see it took a beating in the last few elections.  Not shown above is the 2015 elections, which the Liberal Party won.

The Conservative Party was also a mainstay for the longest time.  Up through the 1988 elections, Canada was mostly a two-party system, with the third party, the NDP, always hanging around with a strong enough voice.  Then everything changed starting with the 1993 elections.  And from then-on to today, no single party could count as surviving.  Some died, others rose from the ashes. 

This is how it should work.  The party responds to the will of the people.  Canada has 35 million people, and to think that from 1867 to 2015 only two different parties can represent Canada would be ludicrous.

USA has 300 million people represented by just two parties.  If it's really representative of the people, it's clear that it's two nations, and likely at least three nations, that is co-existing through inertial reasoning.  Either USA should be at least three nations, or the political system should be setup to make it easier for at least a three-party, and better a four-party, system to thrive.

When you have Romney saying the most terrible things about Trump, and STILL he would not vote for Clinton or Sanders, you know you've got a major problem.  A party-first thinking is everything that is wrong with a political system.  America however is strong enough to survive any kind of government leader.  But can it thrive better under a different political system?

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Spoiler-free: Batman v Superman: First 5 impressions

?Thanks to Snyder and team, they offered a sneak peak to whoever was fast enough to respond on Twitter (last year), and my boy and I were lucky enough to be part of that group.  There were 100 people in attendance last night.  Anyway, I'll give you my first five impressions of the movie, without revealing anything:

1. Wonder Woman is the female superhero we've all been waiting for.  At her first screen presence, the crowd cheered, and she got the loudest cheers in the movie.  Men and women.  Instead of a little boy needing to choose between Batman and Superman as their favorite, Wonder Woman breaks the gender line and she's in play for favorite regardless of gender.  She can carry a movie all by herself, which is not really what you can say about any other female hero.  Ideally, she's a groundbreaker.  The crowd is thirsty for that.  And Gal Gadot is perfect for this role.  And you definitely want to see much more of her.
2. Having Ben Affleck was terrific casting, and going away from Christian Bale was necessary.  It's a different Batman, and if Bale was still there, it would carry all of his backstory.  Changing actors gives the writers more freedom, allows the viewer to kind of decide what's canon and what's not.  Affleck is terrific.  (Same idea applies to Alfred/Lyons and Lyons is terrific casting as well.)
3. Gene Hackman still sets the standard for Lex Luthor, and really for any "straight" villain, who is actually psychotic. I think Eisenberg has potential, and maybe if the movie was 3 hours and not 2 1/2 hours, we could see that.  Brian Cox I think does the best job of that kind of role (Stryker / Xmen).  I think I'd blame the writers on this one.
4. The movie at 150 minutes was too short.  I saw the movie at 10pm, and neither of us was tired when 00:30 rolled around.  And we wanted more.
5. Macguffins abound.

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Elimination Rounds and Tie-breakers

?My boy participated in a competition with dozens of other kids, and after every round, they eliminate a certain number of kids.  The scores reset after every round.  However, the cumulative score is used as a tie-breaker.  So, as it happens, they had to eliminate two kids in one round, but three of them tied for elimination, and all three had the same cumulative score.

They decided to eliminate no one, and instead eliminate four kids in the next round.  Now, it SEEMS fair.  But it is not.  What should they have done?  

This is my proposal: the three kids that tied in the previous round would have their score in the next round decide which two would get eliminated.  And then you eliminate the other two kids under normal rules (score in round, cumulative score until then).

Now, I can understand the logistic nightmare as you keep going down that path, if you have too many rounds, and all the tie-breakers you have to track.  However, I think it's unfair that you start a new round fresh, because you were unable to fairly eliminate anyone.

Does anyone else have these crazy thoughts, or am I alone?

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Great actor who keeps making great movies

?And the winner is... Tom Hanks.

And I'd also include all his talk-show appearances, as he's easily one of the best guests around. (On a related note: Will Smith's last appearance on Letterman was one of the funniest appearances.  Hanks is always gold.  Smith surprised me at how good he was.)

Monday, January 25, 2016

Is flying really the safest mode of transportation? Or, do we measure our lives in distance or time?

?If you want to travel from NYC to Hong Kong, flying is certainly the safest mode of travel.  But, what if you want to travel 24 hours by any mode of transportation? 

Door-to-door, which route offers the safest mode of transportation?

1. 24 hours, walking, cab, parking, flying, cab, hotel to Hong Kong?
2. 24 hours, walking, driving, resting, driving, hotel to Florida?
3. 24 hours, walking, biking, resting, biking, hotel to Washington, DC? (*)
4. 24 hours, walking, resting, walking to Princeton?

(*) After I typed that, I googled it.  It came back with 23h 52m.  Sh!t that was a lucky guess.  Or a clutch guess.  All depends on how you think of random variation.

I really don't know the answer.  What I do know is that how you ask the question matters.  Since people measure their lives in time, not distance, then the rate of death should be measured per unit of time, not per unit of distance travelled (which is I assume how it is being reported).

Thursday, January 14, 2016

NCAA ownership of athletes

?Looking at this, and I can't believe this situation can survive another twenty years.  If the Expos wanted to hire a comp science student-developer to do work for them, while the kid still goes to school, no one would think of stopping the kid. No one would think of stopping a student-musician from playing in a band while going to school, or simply trying to make a living of any kind.  Except athletes.  Suddenly, a student-athlete is a piece of property.  That's because there is no such thing as a student-developer or a student-musician: they are students.  By creating this class of persons, a student-athlete, it allows the owner (i.e., the college) to create rules of ownership.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

WAR for TV shows

?WAR (wins above replacement) is a very simple concept.  It's a question of how much quantity you would trade for quality.  At its core, that's all it is.  Would you rather have a 15-15 pitcher or a 10-5 pitcher?  And if you are able to choose one over the other, then you keep changing the quality or quantity numbers until the choice, YOUR CHOICE, is indifference.  Once you've got there, congratulations, you are about to create your own personal WAR.

We can apply it to TV shows.  I gave a huge Twilight Zone fan, friend of the blog Alan, a choice: watch your #1 favorite episode, or watch ten episodes ranked #N through #N+9.  All he had to do was give me that N.  He said "100".  I then went over to IMDB, and assuming that the distribution of voting would mirror Alan's (though not those particular episode order), I just solved a simple math equation:

(9.3 - replacementLevel) = 10 x (7.45 - replacementLevel)

The 9.3 is the highest rated episode.  And 7.45 is the average rating of episodes 100 through 109.  Replacement Level, or I should say, Alan's replacement level for Twilight Zone, is 7.24.  Alan told us (or at least implied) that his favorite episode gives him as much enjoyment (2.06 units of enjoyment), as those ten episodes I noted (0.21 units x 10).

Being a huge Star Trek fan, and having seen the original run more times than I remember, I did the same thing.  My replacement level for Star Trek is 7.45.  So, what can you do with this?  Well, Season 1 gave me 14 units of enjoyment.  Season 2 gave me 10 units, and Season 3 gave me only 4 units.  As you can see, there's a good reason Star Trek was cancelled: the quality was way down.

(I should note that I zero out any below-0 values.  After all, I don't ever want to rewatch Spock's Brain.)

This came about because my kid is a huge The Flash fan and a big Arrow and Supergirl fan.  And I figured, this all started with Smallville.  But Smallville had 10 seasons, and I think I only watch 4 seasons sporadically.  Which season should I make him watch?  Taking a guess that replacement level for Smallville is 8.0, then I should definitely skip Season 1.  This method suggests watching Seasons 3 and 4, then jumping to Seasons 8-10.

So, there you have it!  WAR for TV.  Go ahead, head over to IMDB, figure out your favorite show, and what your breakeven point according to the above and report your replacement level.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

Star Wars marathon

?I saw Episode 7 last weekend.  My boy and I decided to watch the original 6 as a marathon.  We've watched 4 of them so far.

Before we started watching them, I was telling him that we should figure out which are the important scenes, and maybe we can reduce the 12 or 13 hours down to 4.  We started with the original, episode 4, and as I'm watching it, I'm mentally thinking which scenes can be snipped out.  And by the end of the movie, I didn't come up with any. Well, maybe the award ceremony (but I figured that was just a broadway-type trick to get them all on stage together).  Anyway, it was just good fun, end-to-end.  I was also surprised at how few changing of scenes there were.  It wasn't the galaxy-hopping back and forth that I was thinking.

After that, we watched Episode 1. My kid loves Jar Jar. So, we have to look at these movies as adults and as kids.  My kid's favorite scene is the pod race, which is not something you'll find in any of the other movies.  Maybe that scene on Endor?  It's basically Fast and Furious for kids.

Then we watched Empire Strikes Back, Episode 5.  That's a masterpiece.  Whether you're into sci-fi, or just into movies, this one has it all.  One thing Lucas said he tried to do in all his movies is do something new.  That's why episodes 1 and 2 was so hit-and-miss.  And that's why Episode 5 is such a huge success.

Next was Episode 2, and... it had alot going for it.  I was surprised at how much there was in it.  The one thing that saves Star Wars is that the incredibly horrible lines uttered by the cast is hidden by the sets and designs.  I read Star Wars books when I was younger.  I remember enjoying a book, maybe two, from someone named Zahn.  I can't imagine reading the scripts of Episodes 2 or 1.

So far, I've enjoyed them all.  #5 the most because it had so much going for it.  #4 because it was just pure adventure, and the characters, especially Han, exuded charm.  #1 and #2 were both ok, but still worth watching all of it.  The one thing that #2 had that none of the others had was an actual arc to the character, Anakin actually killing out of revenge, and Natalie Portman coming to grips with it, and both will give us the huge payoff at the end of #3.  You get a bit of that with Leia and Han in #5 and bit of that with Luke in #5.

Next up is #6, then #3, then going back to the theater for #7 again.

Monday, October 05, 2015

Tracking changing behaviour patterns

?Good stuff over at 538, as they highlight the Supreme Court Justices.  A straight arrow reader can easily do this for the Cy Young, showing how voters change in their views of ERA and Wins.  We've highlighted this in the past.  As an example, which pitcher with the most wins won't receive a single Cy vote, and where is his rank in wins?  And similarly, which pitcher with the lowest ERA won't receive a single Cy vote, and where is his rank in ERA?  And how has this changed historically.  A straight arrow reader did this for recent history.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Physics of Speedsters Flash and Quicksilver

?A closet saberist if I've ever seen one. 

I'm sure his estimate for Quicksilver would jump if he had seen the movie at the time.  A bullet travels some 800 feet per second, which means those bullets traveled some 0.05 seconds in that scene.  That whole scene lasted a good minute, so that means that Quicksilver was traveling at about 1 million feet per second (close to 700,000 mph).  Which makes me think that he wasn't traveling in the way we'd normally think of it.