Tangotiger Blog

Monday, October 05, 2015

Cy Young 2015 - Final Predictions

?We've been yapping about this for several weeks now.  So, here we go:

1. Keuchel
2. Price
3. Gray
4. Sale
5. Archer

***

1. Arrieta
2. Greinke
3. Kershaw
4. Cole
5. Scherzer

Sunday, October 04, 2015

MVP Nebula

?MVP debate summarized in two lines by Ben:

A leaderboard brooks no argument, but “value” is amorphous enough to support any opinion; facts can be refuted, but feelings can’t be killed. And so we build our MVP arguments like a grade-schooler begins a book report: by citing the dictionary definition of a word we saw in the title.

Saturday, October 03, 2015

Cy Young - Keuchel and Arrieta will be the BBWAA winners

Keuchel did exactly what he needed to do! His 2 wins ahead is worth 2 points, and losing the ERA title by the slimmest of margins is worth less than negative 1 point.  Still, probably need the tiebreaker. Overall in Cy Young points, Keuchel is ahead of Price by 3 points:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CyYoungTracker.py

Keuchel will get the Cy.

Sale is the one that really jumped, not only breaking up his jam with Felix for 5th, but getting into a tie with Archer for 4th.  That one will be too close to call between Archer and Sale.  Gray gets 3rd.

***

Arrieta did more than he needed to do.  Being 4 wins ahead is worth 4 points, and being behind but close in ERA is worth almost 2 negative points.  We need the tiebreaker, and his IP and K lead is simply too much for Greinke, being ahead by over 10 points. 

Greinke ahead of Kershaw in W and ERA is all he needed to seal the deal for 2nd place. Same reasoning between Cole and Bumgarner, and Cole gets 4th place and MadBum 5th.

***

As a reminder, all the above has nothing to do with how I would vote, but rather how I was able to model the voting patterns of the BBWAA since 2006.

I should also note that I was wrong last year with Kluber and Felix.  Such is the perils of either overfitting, or the changing landscape of the voter base and its evolution.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

How the BBWAA will (almost) vote for the 2015 Cy Young

?Barring an extreme game between now and the end of season, this is how the Cy Young will go:

• NL: 1. Arrieta 2. Greinke 3. Kershaw 4. Cole 5. Bumgarner
• AL: 1/2 Keuchel/Price 3. Gray 4. Archer 5/6 Sale/Felix

Between Keuchel and Price, it's whoever has the best next-and-last start.  The tie-breaker will be the last start.  It's that simple.

Between Sale and Felix, since Felix is shutdown, all Sale has to do is pitch 6 innings and give up 2 ER or less and either get a W or get 10 K.  If he pitches 5 and allows 4 ER, gets the L, then Felix gets it.  Somewhere in between, and it might be close.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Arrieta v Greinke: Felix v Kluber, Part II

?In the 2014 AL race, Felix got off to a great start, had his streak, and seemed to be the inevitable winner.  Until Kluber's surge put him in the running.  Kluber ended up with 3 more wins than Felix (and 3 more losses, but that seemed to be irrelevant), as well as an ERA that was 31 points worse than Felix.  The voters needed a secondary stat to go to, and found it with Kluber being ahead of Felix with 21 strikeouts.

In the 2015 NL race, Greinke got off to a great start, had his streak, and seemed to be the inevitable winner.  Until Arrieta's surge put him in the running.  Arrieta has 3 more wins than Greinke (and 3 more losses which will likely be deemed irrelevant) but an ERA that is 14 points worse than Greinke.  The voters will gravitate toward a secondary stat and will find it with 37 more strikeouts than Greinke.

Kluber ended up with the Cy Young, on the strength of 17 1st place votes over 13 for Felix.  It will therefore be interesting to see how consistent the NL voters of 2015 will be to the AL voters of 2014.  Based solely on the voting for the AL 2014, we should expect 20 1st place votes for Arrieta and 10 for Greinke.

But, when you sample 30 voters from a pool of hundreds, anything can happen.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Which reliever will finish highest in Cy Young, and how high will he finish?

?Mixed in the top 5 in WPA (a metric that is not that useful for SP, but is pretty useful for RP) are the three NL Cy contenders, plus Pirates relievers Melancon and Watson, with a combined 90 shutdowns and only 8 meltdowns.  But given that all Cy ballots will have Greinke, Kershaw, and Arrieta on them, that leaves only two spots, one of which will likely go to their mate Gerrit Cole on virtually every ballot.  Bumgarner is going to get the majority of the other spot, leaving very few scraps for the other SP.  Indeed, how many ballots spots will relievers get in all?  Four or five if even that's too high?  There's just not enough room to make their mark, and I can't see a voter put in both Cole and a Pirates reliever.  Rosenthal is the other choice in the NL, but would a voter put him over mates Wacha or Martinez?  So, a decent chance of no relievers getting any NL Cy love.

Over in the AL, there's a bit more room, with Betances, Davis and Tolleson likely to get a one or three ballots each.  So, I'm guessing the reliever that will finish the highest will be from the AL, and Wade Davis and his shiny (so far) 0.99 ERA will look exciting.  I'm guessing he'll be 7th overall among all AL pitchers.

Which is why seeing the James/Neyer Cy Young predictor at ESPN should be updated.  Notwithstanding that NOBODY at ESPN cares enough to update the programming code so that David Price and his two teams can be merged into one so he actually appears on the leaderboard, the Cy Young voter simply does not recognize relievers anywhere close to the way they used to.  It shouldn't take Bill James or Rob Neyer to say that it should be updated for ESPN to get it updated.

Felix Sale

?Felix Hernandez has pitched 201.2 innings and allowed 180 hits, 55 of which were for extra bases.  So has Chris Sale done exactly that. 

One of them has been assigned 78 earned runs, and the other 79.  One of them has allowed 22 HR and the other 23.  One of them has faced 826 batters and the other has faced 827.

Felix has been assigned an 18-9 record, while Sale is 12-11, even though both received 4 runs of support from their offense. 

My expectation of the BBWAA voter mindset is that they will see through the W-L record and give them each down-ballot votes, enough that one of them will finish fifth and the other sixth.  All that's left is to figure out who will finish ahead of whom.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Cy Young, down to the homeplate strech

?In a head-to-head of Arrieta and Kershaw, Arrieta is the overwhelming favorite for the Cy, using the past mindset of the BBWAA voters.  Between Greinke and Kershaw, again an overwhelming favorite for Greinke.  This is because the BBWAA has decided that if a pitcher leads in both ERA and Wins, then that pitcher will finish ahead in the voting.  This is why Kershaw is destinted to finish third.  That leaves us with Arrieta and his current 2 win lead against Greinke and his 0.23 current ERA lead (the equivalent of 5 runs).  That requires the tie-breaker, using the simple system of IP/2 - ER + W + K/10.  And Arrieta leads by 3 points.  Very very close, but Arrieta has now taken over the lead as the favorite for the Cy Young.  The odds are now 75% Arrieta, 25% Greinke.

With Kershaw a lock for 3rd place, that leaves us with Bumgarner as the slight favorite to finish 4th over Cole.  No one else is close.  Sorry, Max. 

Over in the AL we have only Price and Keuchel as contenders.  Much like with Greinke and Arrieta, but even closer, Price has a slight edge in ERA (by 4 runs) while Keuchel has a 1 win edge.  Going to the tiebreaker, and Price has the slight edge.  So, it's 75/25 odds for Price over Keuchel.  Archer controls his destiny in finishing 3rd over Gray.  The interesting battle will be between Sale (the Max Scherzer of the AL) and Felix for 5th place.  As long as Sale can finish ahead of Felix in ERA, then Sale's huge K lead will take him to 5th.  Otherwise, Felix will take it over Sale.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Cy Young, three starts to go

?With just about every pitcher having three starts to go, there's little margin for error for the guys in the NL.

Over in the AL, it would need a bad game from Price, and no bad games from Keuchel, to put Keuchel on top.  That's about 20% likely to happen.  So, Price has an 80% chance of taking the Cy.  If Gray can keep the W and ERA lead over Archer, he'll end up third.  Otherwise, Archer will get third.  Fifth place will be very interesting. It's between Sale and Felix.  Felix has the big lead in W, and Sale has the slight lead in ERA.  If Felix takes over the lead, Felix will finish 5th.  Otherwise, Sale will take it based on his huge K lead. 

In the NL, Kershaw is about to be knocked out.  Both Greinke and Arrieta are on pace to finish ahead of Kershaw in W and ERA, relegatiing Kershaw to third.  As long as Greinke can maintain his lead in ERA over Arrieta, Greinke will take it.  So, I've got the odds at 70% Greinke, 25% Arrieta, 5% Kershaw.  Bumgarner is just about guaranteed to finish 4th or 5th, and Cole is likely to finish 5th.  There's just Scherzer left in the mix for that 5th spot.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Cy Young: a new leader in the AL

?Well, well, well.  When I say that Keuchel had an 80% chance of winning, that means he also had a 20% chance of not winning.  And this is one of those 20% potentially.

David Price is now the front-runner with a 70% chance of winning.  Keuchel drops all the way down to 30%.  No one else has a chance.  Gray and Archer are neck and neck to finish 3rd and 4th.  Sale has a very strong hold of the 5th spot, with Kluber and Felix as the only other longshot contenders.

In the NL, the three-man show continues.  Greinke has a strong hold over Kershaw, but is neck-and-neck with Arrieta.  Kershaw and Arrieta are also neck and neck, with a slight edge to Kershaw according to BBWAA mindset.  So, this is one of those a > b > c > a situation.  Greinke is at 60%, Arrieta at 25%, and Kershaw at 15%.  Things remain in great flux as every start does something.

Let's see if I can explain it: if Kershaw wasn't around, Greinke and Arrieta would be close to 50-50.  If Arrieta wasn't around, Greinke would take it over Kershaw, probably at 90/10.  If Greinke wasn't around, Kershaw would have a slight lead, maybe 55/45 over Arrieta.  But because all three pitchers are around, you get confusing results.  I'm sure that didn't explain anything.  But, hey, I'm just trying to understand how BBWAA voters think. 

Bumgarner, Scherzer and Cole are the three pitchers vying for those last two spots on the ballot.  deGrom is now a longshot to finish in the top 5.

Monday, September 14, 2015

Cy Young: race for second

?Keuchel is firmly in the lead, 80% chance of winning.  The fight for 2nd place has Price strongly in the lead (15%), with Gray the only real contender (5%).  

Archer has an outside shot at finishing 3rd, but will almost certainly finish 4th.  The race for 5th is with last year's Cy Young contenders: Sale, Kluber, and Felix.  So, these are your top 7 finishers.

Over in the NL, much of the same. Greinke now has a sizable lead, an 80% chance of winning, based on BBWAA mindset, with Arrieta (10%) and Kershaw (10%) neck-and-neck to win, place, or show.  The fight for 4th and 5th place remains with the same group of 4: Bumgarner, Cole, Scherzer, deGrom. So, these are your top 7 finishers.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Cy Young shaking

It's Keuchel's to lose.  ?Barring Felix or Kluber going on their best run ever, the BBWAA voter is going to vote on these guys to end up in the top 5 in some order: Keuchel, Price, Gray, Archer, Sale.  The voter may suggest he's looking at other pitchers, but when it comes down to it, most of the votes are going to these guys.

Keuchel is now at more than 50% chance of winning the Cy.  His closest contender is Price, with Gray as an outside shot. Archer and Sale have almost no chance at winning.  I'll call it as: Keuchel 70%, Price 25%, Gray 4%, rest 1%. 

Over in the NL, the only 3 contenders are Kershaw, Greinke, Arrieta.  Greinke (60%) is the favorite, and if he collapses, Kershaw (30%) will take it, with Arrieta in the hunt (10%).

The fight will be to see who will finish in the top 5, and it's still between Cole, deGrom, Bumgarner, Scherzer.  In terms of odds of ending at 4th or 5th place, I'll have it as: Cole 80%, deGrom 60%, Bumgarner 40%, Scherzer 15%, rest (Harvey, Lackey, Wacha) 5%.

Sunday, September 06, 2015

Cy Young stagnating in NL, crystallizing in AL

?It looks like nothing is changing in the NL.  Greinke still has the big lead on Arrieta and Kershaw on ERA, a slight to big lead on them in W (which is enough to get Greinke the Cy Young).  But one game is still all it takes to go to the tie-breaker, and suddenly it's a 3-way race.  And nothing is really shaking out for the next 4 spots between Bumgarner, Scherzer, Cole, and deGrom.

Over in the AL, it's down to a two-man race of Keuchel and Price.  If Keuchel can maintain the razor-thin edge in both ERA and W he's "on pace" for, he'll get the Cy.  But it's extremely tight and if it goes to a tie-breaker, it's anybody's game.  Gray, Archer and Sale will round out the top 5, with no one else in shouting distance.

Monday, August 31, 2015

Cy Young and one game

?Steamer at Fangraphs has Arrieta forecasted for a 2.29 ERA and Greinke at 1.86.  If Arrieta gives up 2 runs less than forecasted, and Greinke gives up 2 runs more than forecasted, then it becomes a 50/50 shot between Arrieta and Greinke for the Cy.  Kershaw has almost no chance at besting Greinke, since he's forecasted well enough behind Greinke in both W and ERA.  But Kershaw has a chance to finish ahead of Arrieta.  It's one of those crazy a > b > c > a situations. Anyway, I'll go with 40% Greinke, 30% Arrieta, 25% Kershaw, 5% Cole + Scherzer + Bumgarner + deGrom.

In the AL, Keuchel (40%) ahead of Price (35%) ahead of Gray (20%), 5% Sale+Archer.

Friday, August 28, 2015

Cy Young shakeout continues

?In the NL, Greinke is "on pace" to trounce all comers in ERA.  His top contenders are Kershaw, but since Greinke is set to finish ahead of Kershaw in both Wins and ERA, Greinke has enough to finish ahead of Kershaw.  Guys with more wins than Greinke, and so, needing to go to the Cy Young Points are Arrieta, Bumgarner, Cole, and Wacha.  But with the ERA lead, none of them are serious challengers.  So, Greinke is the leading contender, probaby at 50% right now.

For 2nd place, Kershaw is slightly ahead of Arrieta in ERA and well behind in wins.  But Kershaw's huge lead in K will likely be the push based on past Cy voting, to finish at #2.  He probably has a 20% chance at Cy.  Arrieta is the leader in ERA and W among the remaining pitchers, putting him at #3, probably a 15% chance at Cy.  Cole, Scherzer, and Bumgarner are the other contenders, each at 5%.  deGrom is the only remaining pitcher potentially in the mix as a down-ballot vote.

In the AL, Keuchel is the leading contender, being 2nd in ERA and 1st in wins.  David Price is a shade behind Keuchel, and Gray is in the mix.  After that, nobody has a real shot.  So, Keuchel at 40%, Price at 35%, and Gray at 20%, with 5% split  between Sale and Archer.

Saturday, August 22, 2015

Cy Young shakeout

?The AL race is down to five: Price, Keuchel, Gray are in the lead, with Archer and Sale in the background.  The others who were in the running (Felix, Kluber) have been knocked out.

In the NL, it's down to the two-man race of Greinke and Kershaw, with Scherzer joining the next-level crew of Arrieta, deGrom, with Bumgarner, Cole, and Harvey as longshots.  Look for a shakeout in the next week or two in the NL.

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Valuable v Outstanding

?In a war of words,and how beholden we need to be to the literal definition of the word (instead of just being able to usurp its ubiquity), I respond to MGL's point here:

The person has to define value.

(a) One can say it’s performance in games that the team won. Or, in corporate america, it’s who was part of the team that landed the big account.

(b) One can say it’s performance that contributed TOWARD winning. Or in corporate america, it’s all those guys that did a great job, but their performance was unaffected by the last guy who couldn’t close the deal.

(c) One can say it’s performance in a vaccum, that given the right circumstances, wins would have followed that performance. Or in corporate america, it’s who does a good job, period, and we’re not going to figure out how the company made 1 billion$ and how to trace it back to the 10,000 employees, as we just assume that whoever did a good job, did their share, however indirectly.

Choose your definition.

***

I agree that the name of the award itself is limiting. If we had called it “Most Outstanding Player”, we wouldn’t be having these discussions.

Indeed,the Cy Young Award itself, on the statue, at one point said “Most Outstanding Pitcher”.

But, voters want to make it more complicated, talk about pennant races, and “still be 1st place without him” and other nonsense to make the voter sound more self-important.

In 10 years, we don’t want to know that adding Shannon Stewart in the middle of the season coincided (as in coincidence) with a playoff run so he can be justified in finishing in the top 5 in MVP. We don’t want to be embarrassed by Lamar Hoyt and other selections made in the eye of the tornado.

It’s ALREADY hard enough to figure out who was the most outstanding player. We don’t need to make it more complicated by nebulous concepts of timing of performance.

So, I basically agree with MGL’s point. I just disagree with the way people rally around the word “value”, when we should rally around the word “outstanding”, even if it’s not in the name.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Greinke v Kershaw: on pace for the Cy Young race

?This is going to be a very interesting race, if we rely on the Steamer forecasts over at Fangraphs.  Greinke is on pace to lead the NL (and MLB) with a 2.01 ERA, and nudge ahead of his chief rival, Kershaw, in wins, 16 to 15.  That by itself is enough to assure Greinke the Cy Young.  However, if they both end up with the same number of wins, it goes to the tiebreaker.  And based on the Tango Cy Points, Kershaw will nudge ahead on the strength of his on-pace 85 K lead.

Even #2 will be interesting, because of deGrom's on-pace ERA of 2.33 to Kershaw's 2.31, and his 14 wins to Kershaw's 15.  Flip those, and deGrom ends up in second place.  Flip-flop either one, and it goes to tie-breaker, and once again, Kershaw's enourmous K lead (and his IP lead), will put Kershaw in second. 

Then you still have Scherzer in the hunt, who can still finish in 1st place, especially if he goes head-to-head with Kershaw for that.  You also have Arrieta and Gerrit Cole as viable contenders.  A few others (Bumgarner, Harvey, Wacha) can always pose a challenge by having a Pedro-like run.

***

Over in the AL, it's all up in the air.  Keuchel has a chance to lead in wins and ERA, and so, assure himself the Cy.  But, if no one emerges with both, then Price, Gray, and Archer join him to become leading contenders.  The other viable contenders were the top 3 AL pitchers last year (Kluber, Felix, Sale).

***

So, a pretty exciting race, really.

Monday, August 03, 2015

Cy Young Award Tracker

?It's now a three-way race in the NL, with Kershaw, Scherzer and Greinke fighting it out.  They each have a 30% chance of winning, Gerrit Cole is at 5% and the rest of NL is at 5%.

In the AL, it's Keuchel, Gray, Price and Archer, at 15-25% each, with Sale and Felix at 5% each.

Saturday, July 18, 2015

Who is on pace to win the 2015 Cy Young?

?If you know what "on pace" means, the answer won't surprise you.  If you are surprised, then you should rethink your notion of "on pace".

In the NL, it's a three man race with Scherzer in the lead (at 30%), followed closely by Greinke and Kershaw (each around 20% chance), with Cole and Arrieta an outside shot (each at 10%).  deGrom, Bumgarner, Cueto, Burnett (together at 10%) will be in the mix to fill out the five-man ballots.

In the AL, anybody can take it. Sale, Keuchel, Price, Gray, Felix each at 15-20%, with Archer and Kluber as long shots.