Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Cano/10 v Ellsbury/7 + Beltran/3
?Dave Fleming pointed out something fascinating, that the Yanks, rather than trying to sign 10 years of Robinson Cano, instead opted for 7 of Ellsbury and 3 of Beltran. That's mildly interesting. The fascinating part:
- Cano will be 31.5 years old when the 2014 season starts, and will end the 10 years at age 41 years old.
- Ellsbury will be 30.5 years old when the 2014 season starts, and will end the 7 years at age 37. Carlos Beltran will then pick up at age 37 and play until the age of 39.5.
So, you have virtually the same 10 years over the same age bracket. It just happens to be split into two players. Furthermore, he shows an aging chart where Cano starts at 5.5 wins, and by the time his last three years come in, he'll be about as good as Carlos Beltran would be for his next three years. In essence, you are getting the same quality of ballplayer.
The difference is in the payroll:
Year
|
Yankees
|
Mariners
|
|
2014
|
$36.85
|
$24
|
|
2015
|
$36.85
|
$24
|
|
2016
|
$36.85
|
$24
|
|
2017
|
$21.85
|
$24
|
|
2018
|
$21.85
|
$24
|
|
2019
|
$21.85
|
$24
|
|
2020
|
$21.85
|
$24
|
|
2021
|
$0
|
$24
|
|
2022
|
$0
|
$24
|
|
2023
|
$0
|
$24
|
|
Total
|
$198
|
$240
|
The Yanks are front-loading the deal. If we do a present-value, using a 5% discount rate, the 198 million $ they'd be paying according to the above schedule is equivalent to paying 21.75MM$ a year for 10 years (i.e., a 10/217.5 deal). Which is not too far off from Cano.
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