Sunday, March 30, 2014
Cabrera and those out years
?Poz tries to make sense of those out years. This is really the key point:
In fact, I think the Tigers basically view this as a five-year, $292 million deal. Isn’t that even crazier than 10 years, $292 million? Not necessarily.
Right, that's a good way to put it. I mean, the Tigers could have given him a 15 year or 20 year or 30 year deal for the EXACT SAME TOTAL. Does it make any difference? No, hardly any.
First a correction: this is an 8-year extension for 248MM$. The first two years were already signed for. If you break up those 8 years into years 3-6 and years 7-10, and if you use Basbeall Prospectus expectation of 35 wins for those 10 years, we can start his WAR at 5.75 the first year, drop it by 0.5 each year, and end up with:
- years 3-6: 16 wins
- years 7-10: 8 wins
That's 24 wins over those 8 years. So, the Tigers are reasonably expecting him to get twice as many wins in the first 4 extension years as the last 4. And so would any fan. So, you expect to pay more, even if you physically you will pay the same.
Using the Matt Swartz pay schedule, you'd end up paying:
- years 3-6: 154MM$
- years 7-10: 95MM$
So, that's what they are really expecting.
***
Interestingly, Poz shows how many wins to expect from known HOF.. He shows that HOF at age 31 are 87.7% of age 27 and age 30 are at 90.6% of age 27. So, age 31 is 97% of age 30. Age 32 is 93% of age 30. We have for these 10 years:
- 31 97%
- 32 93%
- 33 79%
- 34 66%
- 35 57%
- 36 46%
- 37 32%
- 38 17%
- 39 13%
- 40 8%
So, for years 3-6, he's at 247% of age 30 and years 7-10, he's at 71% of age 30. Cabrera's WAR at age 30 is 7.5. Multiplying 247% by 7.5, we get 18.5 wins, and 71% of 7.5 is 5.3 wins. That's a total of... 24 wins! (Look back at the earlier bolded number.)
The whole thing lines up based on research of Baseball Prospectus' model and Joe Posnanski's separate model, then all multiplied by Matt Swartz' model.
But, you know, if you had an initial reaction against all this, you will continue to fight against anything I can show you. All I can tell you is that when you have new data to consider, then you should let it affect your opinion.
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