Sunday, September 20, 2015
Cy Young, three starts to go
?With just about every pitcher having three starts to go, there's little margin for error for the guys in the NL.
Over in the AL, it would need a bad game from Price, and no bad games from Keuchel, to put Keuchel on top. That's about 20% likely to happen. So, Price has an 80% chance of taking the Cy. If Gray can keep the W and ERA lead over Archer, he'll end up third. Otherwise, Archer will get third. Fifth place will be very interesting. It's between Sale and Felix. Felix has the big lead in W, and Sale has the slight lead in ERA. If Felix takes over the lead, Felix will finish 5th. Otherwise, Sale will take it based on his huge K lead.
In the NL, Kershaw is about to be knocked out. Both Greinke and Arrieta are on pace to finish ahead of Kershaw in W and ERA, relegatiing Kershaw to third. As long as Greinke can maintain his lead in ERA over Arrieta, Greinke will take it. So, I've got the odds at 70% Greinke, 25% Arrieta, 5% Kershaw. Bumgarner is just about guaranteed to finish 4th or 5th, and Cole is likely to finish 5th. There's just Scherzer left in the mix for that 5th spot.
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