Monday, October 02, 2023
Cy Young Predictor 2023
Going by the Classic Predictor in the NL, and it looks like this (with the FIP-enhanced version in parens):
- Blake Snell (1)
- Zac Gallen (4)
- Spencer Strider (2)
- Justin Steele (5)
- Logan Webb (3)
- Kodai Senga (7)
Zack Wheeler is 6th in FIP-enhanced.
So, Snell wins either way. And Gallen is ahead of Steele either way. And Steele is ahead of Senga either way. Strider is ahead of Webb either way. Strider is really the wildcard.
Corbin Burnes in 2021 aside, we're still not at a full paradigm shift. We are basically at a 60/40, maybe 75/25 split in terms of the Classic v FIP-enhanced Predictors.
If we were at 50/50 in terms of the weighting of the two, Strider would be just ahead of Gallen. If it were 75/25, Gallen is just ahead of Strider. If it was two-thirds/one-third, they are dead-even. Webb and Steele are dead-even if it was 80% Classic and 20% FIP-enhanced.
As you can see, we can twist ourselves into knots here trying to figure out where we are in the FIP paradigm shift.
Going by the Classic Predictor in the AL, and it looks like this (with the FIP-enhanced version in parens):
- Gerrit Cole (1)
- Kevin Gausman (3)
- Luis Castillo (9)
- Sonny Gray (2)
- Kyle Bradish (5)
Zach Eflin is 4th in FIP-enhanced.
Again, Cole wins either way. Just as in 2022, we had a huge disconnect between Nola/Urias based on whether it was FIP-or-not, we see the same with Eflin and Castillo. If you go with 50/50, Eflin and Castillo are tied for 5/6.
If we go with the more reasonable 75/25, Castillo drops to 5th, while Gray and Bradish move up one slot from the Classic Predictor.
Again, we can tie ourselves into knots here. So, I'll just stick with the Classic Predictor, and let's see what we learn in 2023. If we find that what Nola/Urias taught us is that FIP is in play, then let's make a new Predictor that introduces FIP into the official, and SINGLE, forecaster.
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