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Tangotiger Blog

A blog about baseball, hockey, life, and whatever else there is.

Thursday, October 06, 2022

Cy Young Predictor 2022

As we know, we can easily model voter behaviour by relying solely on ERA, IP, SO, and W.  This has been confirmed since 2006 through 2020.  Except notably for 2021, when Burnes pulled a FIP win out of the hat.  Though notably, Cole did not pull the FIP win from Robbie Ray's hat.  So, there's a potential change happening, but we're not sure.

Let's go to 2022, and see what our traditional predictor is telling us, and what our FIP-enhanced version (in paren) might be saying as well.

In the NL, we have:

  1. Alcantara easily (1 easily)
  2. Urias easily (9)
  3. Fried barely (3)
  4. Burnes really close (5)
  5. Gallen barely (6)
  6. Rodon (2)

(Nola 4th using enhanced)

So as you can see, the big tell as to whether voters are relying on FIP or not is how it sees Urias and Rodon principally, and maybe Nola as well.  So, watch for the early returns with the top 3 "Finalists" are announced.

On to the AL:

  1. Verlander easily (1 easily)
  2. Cease barely (3)
  3. Manoah (4)
  4. Ohtani (2)
  5. Valdez (5)
  6. Bieber (6)

So we will learn about the impact of FIP based on how Ohtani finishes.  So again, look for the top 3 finalists as an early indicator.

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October 06, 2022
Cy Young Predictor 2022