Thursday, September 17, 2015
Cy Young: a new leader in the AL
?Well, well, well. When I say that Keuchel had an 80% chance of winning, that means he also had a 20% chance of not winning. And this is one of those 20% potentially.
David Price is now the front-runner with a 70% chance of winning. Keuchel drops all the way down to 30%. No one else has a chance. Gray and Archer are neck and neck to finish 3rd and 4th. Sale has a very strong hold of the 5th spot, with Kluber and Felix as the only other longshot contenders.
In the NL, the three-man show continues. Greinke has a strong hold over Kershaw, but is neck-and-neck with Arrieta. Kershaw and Arrieta are also neck and neck, with a slight edge to Kershaw according to BBWAA mindset. So, this is one of those a > b > c > a situation. Greinke is at 60%, Arrieta at 25%, and Kershaw at 15%. Things remain in great flux as every start does something.
Let's see if I can explain it: if Kershaw wasn't around, Greinke and Arrieta would be close to 50-50. If Arrieta wasn't around, Greinke would take it over Kershaw, probably at 90/10. If Greinke wasn't around, Kershaw would have a slight lead, maybe 55/45 over Arrieta. But because all three pitchers are around, you get confusing results. I'm sure that didn't explain anything. But, hey, I'm just trying to understand how BBWAA voters think.
Bumgarner, Scherzer and Cole are the three pitchers vying for those last two spots on the ballot. deGrom is now a longshot to finish in the top 5.
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