Friday, November 17, 2023
Blake Snell or Spencer Strider?
Blake Snell had a .266 wOBA. But because his BABIP was so incredibly low (.256), the rest of that wOBA, viewed through FIP gave us a good, but not great, FIP of 3.44. FIP is agnostic as to that BABIP. Hold that thought.
Spencer Strider had a .278 wOBA. But because his BABIP was so incredibly high (.316), the rest of that wOBA, viewed through FIP gave us a great, even outstanding, FIP of 2.85. FIP is agnostic as to that BABIP. Hold that thought.
So, was Snell a little bit better overall because of his wOBA, or was Strider far better because of his FIP? Ok, let's bring that thought about BABIP to the forefront.
Since each pitcher allowed about 400 batted balls in play (BIP, excludes HR), then that difference of .316 and .256, or .060 per BIP comes out to a total of 24 hits (.060 x 400 = 24). FIP says: I don't care. And it can say that in the same way that OBP says: I don't care if someone has 120 walks and 10 HR and someone else has 80 walks and 50 HR. OBP is not the last word in overall production. This is why we have wOBA. It can balance that.
Similarly, FIP is not the last word in overall production. Pitchers of course have fielders to help, or hurt them. Fortunately, we track that, at the pitcher level, right here.
Spencer Strider's fielders were actually league average. So, that .316 BABIP of his? That's all his doing. He deserves that. And so, that .278 wOBA? Yes, that's his. He deserves that. As wonderful as his FIP was, well, FIP is not the last word. And given evidence of average fielders, then wOBA is the last word for Strider.
How about Snell? Well, his fielders were definitely above average, at +8 when he was on the mound. Indeed, most of the Padres pitchers benefitted from stellar fielding. Still, that's +8 above average, and since Strider had league average support, that difference between the two is 8 hits. So, that's 8 hits that we can bump up his wOBA by. With 742 PA, we can bump up Snell's wOBA by 8/742 or .011. And since he had an unadjusted wOBA of .266, we can have a fielding-adjusted wOBA for Snell of .277.
Well, well, well. Snell and Strider are, overall, nearly identical.
Indeed, once you park adjust (Petco is pitcher-friendly), Strider pulls slightly ahead. But, let's not talk about park factors, as you might be able to make the argument that Petco affects Snell differently, and maybe he doesn't get all the benefit. Let's call them even. Overall.
Now, Snell is famous for giving up alot of walks. Alot. Like ALOT. But not as much with runners on, and so, he can make walks less damaging. And especially that he gives up very few HR with runners on. Just 4.
Strider on the other hand gave up 10 HR with runners on. And he gives up alot more walks with runners on, making them more costly. And a huge share of his strikeouts are with no runners on. And with no runners on, a strikeout is identical to any other kind of out. Strikeouts get their extra value with a runner on 3B and fewer than two outs.
Here is how their wOBA splits look like, with bases empty (.282 v .263) and with runners on (.245 v .301). So, one pitcher drops his wOBA by 37 points when they can be more damaging, while the other increases by 38 points when they can be more damaging. I don't even have to tell you which one is Snell and which one is Strider.
Pitchers of course change their approach based on the ball-strike count, and naturally with runner-out scenarios. Batters too for that matter. Heck, even the fans have a different reaction in watching the game based on the changing conditions. But how much of that context matters? Does it matter just a little, or totally?
At a high level view, after adjusting for fielding support and park, Snell and Strider were pretty much equals. At a field-level view, Snell clearly saved more runs than Strider.
In your view: in 2023, were they in fact equals, because you see things from a high-level view? Or was Snell noticeably better because you see things from a field-level view?
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