Sunday, July 23, 2023
Bat Swing: Whiffs by Pitch Types
I'm working on bat-swing data, which you can be assured we'll eventually bring to you on Savant, at some point. I don't know when, but this off-season is my best guess. But, who knows, it could go into 2024.
In the mean time, I can share my research, as I have in the past. This is the first time I've managed to look at the data in this way. In the past, I've focused only on contacted pitches. In this post, I will focus on whiffs (swing-and-miss), the no-contact swings.
What I do is break down the whiffs into six categories (every whiff belongs to exactly ONE of these six), in this order. First, I establish is the swing is early or late. If it's a reasonably-timed swing, then I check to see whether the batter flailed at an outside pitch, or was tied-up inside. If it's none of those, then I check to see if the batter swing under or over the pitch.
And here are the results (click to embiggen).
Considering I did NOT use the pitch type to establish any of this, I am quite pleased that the results are directionally sound. In terms of a batter swinging late compared to early, we see that 4-seamers and sinkers overwhelm the data. Similarly, swinging early instead of late, and we see all the low-speed offerings (changeups, curves, splitters, and to a large extent sliders). The cutter sits right in the middle.
What kind of pitches to batter flail at? Sliders overwhelmingly, as well as changeups and splitters. Four-seamers and sinkers is what ties up the batter.
What do batter swing under? Four seamers overwhelmingly. And swing over: changeups and splitters overwhelmingly, with curves and sliders a large amount. Cutters and sinkers are about even on both.
And yes, we'll be looking at it by batters and pitchers. And we'll be comparing contacts and non-contacts. The data is... at the risk of indubitably over-repeating the word of the day... overwhelming... but we'll get it in a manageable way. A new world has been opened for us.
UPDATE: Focusing on the whiffs, here are how the batters do comparing early swings (expect fast pitches, get slow pitches) and late swings (expect slow pitches, get fast pitches). Here we see Joey Votto is among the leaders in great timing. When he whiffs, it's not because of timing. (Click to embiggen). Wander Franco, when he mistimes, it's almost always early. Whether this means he is susceptible to offspeed pitches in the future, I don't know. But it's something to be on the lookout for.
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