Thursday, January 18, 2024
Statcast: wOBA by Distance
350 feet to 430 feet. This is the key.
Once you can hit a ball 430 feet, every extra foot is irrelevant. Hitting a ball 430+ feet is a HR, regardless of distance, and hence the wOBA value of 2.
When you hit a ball under 350 feet, well, adding distance, or SUBTRACTING distance, is about the same. When you hit a ball under 200 feet, every extra foot helps. But once you get to 220 feet, every foot HURTS. Until you get to 320-330 feet or so.
So, if you look at all batted balls 0 to 350 feet, as a group, it's basically immune to extra or lost distance. Adding a foot or subtracting a foot doesn't change anything.
The rapid acceleration happens at 350+.
Now, if you follow baseball, you can guess the reason: there's a gap between the infield and outfield. Infielders play up to 150 feet from home plate, while outfielders play starting at 280 feet from home, up to about 330 feet from home. So, you can get success between the infield/outfield, or beyond the outfielders (and/or beyond the fence).
When you hit a ball at 95 mph, at the ideal launch angle (roughly 24-32 degrees), that ball will travel about 350 feet. This is why the Hard Hit rate really starts at around 95mph. It's not arbitrary. 90 mph is not enough to get you to 350. And 350 really is a threshold that needs to be cleared. Naturally, 100 is better than 95 and 105 is better than 100. Just saying 95+ for hard hit is just a gateway to better understanding Exit Velocity.
And so, when you look at a ball having more or less carry because of wind or any other reason, it's players who hit the ball 350-430 feet that are going to be the most affected.