Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Cy Young Predictor update
Cy Young Predictor (merging forces of BBWAA mindset with the forecasts of @steamerpro ...forecasting is the ONLY and CORRECT way to do "on pace"):
In the NL, it's resolving itself to be a two-man race between Scherzer and deGrom, the likely leader in W v the likely leader in ERA. In terms of the Cy Young points:
- deGrom has a 13 point advantage in ERA
- Scherzer has a 9 point advantage in W
- Scherzer also has a slight 2 point advantage in IP and 3 point advantage in K
As you can see, it's a very very close call. As for Nola, Scherzer is ahead of Nola in every component, and so, wherever Scherzer is placed on any individual ballot, Nola will be either 1 or 2 slots behind him. The Cy Points Forecast:
- 102.6 Scherzer
- 101.4 deGrom
- 88 Nola
Look for downballot support for: Corbin, Folty, Greinke, Freeland, Mikolas, and Kershaw
Over in the AL, there are six viable candidates. Sale, Snell, Bauer are way ahead of Verlander in ERA by 13 to 18 points. But Verlander is ahead of them in IP by 11 to 15 points. So when you include both ERA and IP, Verlander is 2 to 4 points behind them. In terms of strikeouts, Verlander is ahead of them by 4 to 7 points.
Focusing on Verlander and Snell, the front-runners:
- Snell ahead by 14 points in ERA
- Snell ahead by 2 points in W
- Verlander ahead by 11 points in IP
- Verlander ahead by 7 points in K
This is a tight race, much like Verlander has been involved with Porcello and Price in the past. Unmentioned is Kluber and Cole, who are each very much in the mix, if not as contenders, at least as spoilers, as they can push a contender down a peg in the balloting.
With six viable candidates and five slots, it's hard to see there could be any more down-ballot support, but look for Carrasco, Severino, Clevinger, Morton, as well as relievers to Diaz (58 saves) and Treinen (1.05 ERA) to pick up possibly 5th place votes.