Monday, October 04, 2021
Cy Young Predictor 2021
In my review of 2020, I closed off ominously:
Overall, the model gets a B- I think. I think the fans get a similar grade.
This is probably as bad as it should get. If 2021 gives us something similar, then it’s time to retire this model. I’m going to assume the 60-game season is the cause, but it could very well be a behaviour change. Let’s see how it goes.
And NL 2021 is the test. After a neck and neck race in September, Walker Buehler came out to lead the NL in Cy Young points. As a reminder, the model is ridiculously straightforward:
Cy Young Points = IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
I know it looks TOO straightforward, making the concept ridiculous. How is it possible to distill the 30 voters for each award down to such a simple rule? But then again, this is how well it looks going back to 2006:
Every single Cy Young winner finished 1st or 2nd in Cy Young points, since 2006, without exception. None. And even those who finished 2nd were within striking distance (4 points) of 1st place.
So the rule is straightforward enough: if you lead the league in Cy Young points, or are within 4 points of the leader, you are the only candidates to win the Cy Young. This is true for the 30 awards from 2006-2020. 30 for 30.
2021 is going to be the test. Buehler is ahead of 2nd+3rd place Scherzer and Wheeler by 4.6-4.7 points. So, that’s more than the 4 points above. And maybe the model needs to increase its uncertainty level to 5 points. Doing that, then I can at least plausibly say that any one of Scherzer, Wheeler, and Buehler winning is a feather in the cap for the model. But Corbin Burnes has a chance to win the Cy Young, and he’s 11 points behind Buehler. If this was any season before 2021, Burnes would have no shot. But the odds makers have Burnes even with Scherzer (and Buehler nowhere to be found).
The Fans on a Twitter poll have it this way:
- 1/2: Scherzer/Burnes (too close to call)
- 3/4: Wheeler/Buehler (too close to call)
- 5: Woodruff
- 6/7: Gausman/Urias (too close to call)
- 8: Wainwright
So, are the fans and the bettors more in tune with the psyche of the voters in 2021? Is it time to retire the model? We’ll see in about six weeks. Until then, here are the forecasts:
NL
- Buehler
- Wheeler (though really splitting hairs with Max, which I should not mention because…)
- Scherzer
- Burnes (...really splitting hairs with Gausman, and basically points to the idea that we need to rethink the model)
- Gausman
- Urias
- Woodruff
- Wainwright
AL
- Ray
- Cole
- Rodon (only 132 IP!)
- Lynn
- Montas
- McCullers
- Berrios
- Bassitt