Saturday, March 21, 2020
At-counts v Thru-Counts
This is probably the single biggest error new researchers make. It's one of the biggest errors veteran researchers make.
It helps if you can think of a state as being defined where you are BEFORE the event happens, not after. If you get a .400 OBP on 0-0 counts, what does that mean? Well, it means that you are looking at the state after it happens. You know the plate appearance ended, and so, you know that you faced one pitch. And on that pitch, you know that you got a hit 40% of the time, with no walks. All of that is very, very, VERY useless. Why? Because MOST of the time, when you ENTER the 0-0 count, you will STILL be at the plate. And if on those occasions you get to 1-0 far more than 0-1, you want to account for that. But, if you only count the 0-0 count data based on knowing the plate appearance ended, you are deciding where you are AFTER the event ended.
With that preamble, let me copy/paste what I wrote on twitter:
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