Tuesday, March 05, 2013
Optimal Batting Order Paper
This was from Sloan last year (pdf). I don't remember reading it or commenting on it. It covers several topics, a few of which I either don't understand at all, or I don't understand how relevant it could be for optimizing batting order. The one part I agree with is this conclusion:
basic question - what is the expected run production prior to optimization compared with the actual runs produced in the game? On average, the actual mean score was 4.54 while the simulated score before optimizing the batting order was 4.44.
0.1 runs per game, or 16 runs per season, is pretty much inline with expectation. I would have expected a range of 5-15 runs per season. The other stuff presented would seem to include a better job of picking the right players, which I agree with. More than setting the order correctly is picking the correct players.
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