Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Odds of Greinke passing Hershiser
?Greinke is being reported at 43 2/3 scoreless so far. But, in the game prior to the streak, he got an out before being taken out of the game. So, he's at 44. But Elias makes the official rules, and the partial inning doesn't count.
Hershiser is therefore at 59 innings for the same reason. The other bugaboo is that it only include the regular season for some silly reason. Including the playoffs and Hershiser is at 67 innings. It's like telling someone who hit his first MLB HR in Game 7 of the World Series in Extra Innings: "Hey, that's NOT your first HR! You'll have to wait until next year for it to count officially."
Anyway, Greinke needs 16 full innings to get the record, since only full innings count. A great pitcher allows runs at about two-thirds the league average. That puts him at around 0.3 runs per inning, which is probably around an 82% chance of having a scoreless inning. So, .82 ^ 16 = 4%. If you think it should be 83% scoreless, we're at 5%. Let's call it 5% right now.
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