Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Ottawa Hockey Analytics
?Looks like there was lots of fun. And good job on Sam and Matt on taking the next step in shot handling:
The “second period” had some great work on shot quality done by Sam Ventura and Matt Cane. Sam briefly discussed the limitations of Corsi in that they count all shots as equal, and the limitations of scoring chances in how they ignore a large portion of shots. He combined these and did some math to come up with expected goals. This is a very repeatable stat; the correlation between expected goals and future expected goals was 0.594. It also correlated nicely to actual GF% an R^2 of 0.411. This actually is better than Corsi which only has a 0.408 correlation.
Matt Cane then presented on weighted shots. He is building upon the work Tom Tango did. The first thing Matt talked about was having to adjust for score effects and score keeper bias. He also stated the need to split up forwards and defencemen. This point was key as weighted shots were repeatable year to year and predictive of future goals for forwards but not for defencemen. Weighted shots for forwards are also more repeatable and predicable than score adjusted Corsi.
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