Thursday, January 04, 2018
NHL In-game win probability
?An incredibly thoughtful approach by MoneyPuck.
I'm surprised he made no mention of Poisson, which should essentially be your prior, if not the entire model. You can see the Poisson model here, along with Leverage Index. I never incorporated the PP situations, which is a gap, so I'm very grateful that he did.
I'd be interested to see how it compares to the market approach, as determined by Gambeltron 2000.
And the @pullbot is another great innovation.
If recent history is any indication, expect Peter to be hired by an NHL team before the season ends, with his site taken down.
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