Wednesday, December 18, 2019
NFL: Should teams pass even more?
UPDATE: Thanks to @WhisperScrape for doing all the work.
?I put a call out to the Twitter world for the aspiring saberists. And a few people asked for my requirements. These were the specs I laid out.
Here's what I'd like to see:
- limit the data to 1st 25 minutes of the 1st half and 1st 25 minutes of the second half (i.e., exclude last 5 minutes of each half)
- limit only to 1st-and-10 plays
- tag every play as an intended-pass or an intended-rush; count all QB runs, sacks or any other non-handoff play as intended-pass; so if we want to be more specific, it's nonhandoff v handoff plays
- break up the field into zones of 20 yards (so own 0 to 20, own 20 to 40, 40 to 40, opponent 20 to 40, opponent 0 to 20)... so that we can speak math, show the yardages as "yards to endzone": 0-20, 20-40, 40-60, 60-80, 80-100
- count the number of events, handoff v nonhandoff, and the average yardage gained
- the yardage gained include penalties, so we are looking at the difference in scrimmage line between that play and the next play (unless of course it's a TD, in which case it's just the actual yardage gained)
- break it up by offensive team (so 32 results)
- break it up by defensive team (so 32 results)
- Run it for 2019 season only.
Someone sent me the results within 24 hours, so here's how I aggregated it. I've asked them for permission to identify them, and I will when they assents(*). It is a simple average of 64 rows for each breakdown.
(*) Since they can now be used as a singular pronoun, does that mean that I can say they assents as opposed to they assent?
?
What is clear is that the redzone is definitely different, and clearly that has to be treated differently, which is what we expected. Really, the next step is to see where to draw that line. I just used 20 yards as the standard, but it could be 25 or 30. We also see some impact within your own 20. The likely reason is that the defense is allowing the run, to keep the offense as deep as possible, and not let a successful pass play give them breathing room. Again, whether it's inside the 20 or inside the 10, that's for a future iteration of research.
We see from 40 to 80 yards to go, that's probably the most neutral area on the field. With a pass play giving you 7 yards and a run giving you 4, the pass play is a huge winner. However, we have to remember that in football, you get a reset in downs once you get 10 yards. So, there's a bigger difference between a 9 yard and 11 yard gain than there is in an 11 and 13 yard gain. Again, that's another future iteration for study. That said, it's extremely unlikely that the expected point gain on 4 yards per run (on this area of the field) can match 7 yards per pass. If it was 5 and 6 respectively, maybe that would be equivalent. Indeed what we see inside the 20 (or maybe inside the 10) would likely represent that.
Another interesting result to me is that the % of pass plays on 1st and 10 are not very much linked to the spot on the field. The overall average is 44%, with the 20 yard breakdowns as: 43%, 41%, 44%, 47%, 42%. I'd tell you which order it is, but it doesn't seem to matter! (I will tell you anyway, the order is from the redzone to the offense inside their own 20. So the highpoint of 47% is with 60-80 yards to go.) So, it's a little confusing to me that the yards per pass was not dependent on the frequency of passes. Presumably, it has more to do with an expectation that it's intended short passes inside your own 20, since you are just trying to march the ball downfield a bit, rather than taking big risks on 1st and 10. And maybe they SHOULD take bigger risks. I dunno. I should probably watch more football at this point.
The average yards per play was also very similar in your own 20 (5.5), 60-80 yards to go (5.6), 40-60 yards to go (5.4). This also points to the idea that maybe we do have equilibrium. After all, we see the shift in approach inside your own 20 shows a drop in passing yards per play and a gain in running yards per play. But we're still at the same spot in terms of yards gained. I really should watch more football now.
Hopefully, with the above specs and what our aspiring saberist has done gets us into the wading pool, and now someone can take this to the shallow end and wow us with more results.
And you can tell the sign of a good study when answering one question leads to two more questions. And that's what we have here. Most people are happy coming to a conclusion, but that happiness is shortlived. Because there are even more questions to give you even more contentment. Thank you to our aspiring saberist!
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