Monday, December 08, 2014
Math 9, Vet Committee 0
?A few days ago, on Poz's site, I said:
You need to talk about the silly “vote for up to 4 of the 10?. With this kind of balloting system, and with no clear front-runner, that system of vote-splitting almost guarantees no one can get to 75%. You need vote-trading to get a person in.
Poz then explains it for his readers:
Tom Tango explains it this way: Let’s say all ten candidates on the ballot were equally qualified for the Hall of Fame. That’s not quite true here, but it’s a good starting point — you had 10 good candidates. If they’re all equally good candidates, then each one had a 40% chance of getting picked for a ballot — 10 players on the ballot, voter chooses four, 40% chance. Pretty simple.
Well, if a player has a 40% chance of being on one ballot, his chances on making 12 of 16 is … get ready for it, less than 0.5%. That’s not 5% — it is less than one-half of one-percent. 995 times out of a 1,000, the player would NOT get elected. And remember, that’s assuming every voter uses all four of his votes. Now, in this case, the panel did not see all ten candidates as equally qualified. They saw Allen, Oliva, Kaat, Wills and Minoso as the best candidates...
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