if anyone else is interested in tracking their accuracy, I had a feeling the original predictions would disappear, so I snatched a copy of the pre-tournament probabilities. for the record, here is what they were.
CHANCE OF REACHING ROUND
TEAM GROUP SIXTEEN QUARTER SEMI FINAL WIN
Brazil A 99% 80% 70% 57% 45%
Mexico A 40% 11% 5% 2% <1%
Croatia A 37% 10% 4% 1% <1%
Cameroon A 24% 5% 2% <1% <1%
Spain B 79% 45% 30% 18% 8%
Chile B 70% 33% 21% 11% 4%
Netherlands B 44% 14% 7% 3% <1%
Australia B 8% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Colombia C 78% 46% 15% 7% 3%
Ivory Coast C 54% 25% 7% 3% <1%
Greece C 38% 15% 4% 1% <1%
Japan C 30% 11% 2% <1% <1%
Uruguay D 64% 36% 13% 6% 2%
England D 63% 35% 12% 5% 2%
Italy D 47% 22% 6% 2% <1%
Costa Rica D 30% 10% 2% <1% <1%
France E 79% 45% 24% 9% 4%
Ecuador E 55% 23% 10% 3% <1%
Switzerland E 46% 17% 7% 2% <1%
Honduras E 20% 5% 1% <1% <1%
Argentina F 93% 67% 47% 28% 13%
Bosnia F 58% 27% 12% 3% <1%
Nigeria F 31% 12% 4% <1% <1%
Iran F 18% 5% 2% <1% <1%
Germany G 89% 69% 45% 20% 11%
Portugal G 44% 23% 9% 3% <1%
USA G 34% 17% 6% 2% <1%
Ghana G 33% 16% 5% 2% <1%
Belgium H 77% 36% 15% 6% 2%
Russia H 65% 25% 9% 3% <1%
South Korea H 39% 11% 3% <1% <1%
Algeria H 19% 4% <1% <1% <1%