Tangotiger Blog

Monday, February 04, 2013

Spread of offense v defense

Phil makes the point that while the spread in offense and defense is roughly the same in MLB, the NHL has a larger spread in defense than offense.  And the reason should be clear: goalies.  I agree with basically everything Phil said in there.?

When do QB metrics stabilize?

Great stuff here!  Love to see the techniques I use on baseball being applied to other sports.  So, yards per attempt has an r=.50 after about 800 attempts.  Basically, that means you need nearly two years for half the metric to be considered signal and half to be noise.  He goes through some metrics, and determines:

Note that because he took a QB's numbers in the same year, then something like TD rate does not necessarily reflect the QB's skill, but rather may have a bias in his receivers.

Interception rate being so low is also interesting.  That may be because in order to survive, then you can't throw alot of interceptions to begin with.  In order to find a signal in something, you need to have samples that have a large range in talent to begin with.  If everyone has low interception rates, then it's harder to find out who is really really low in interception rates, and who is really low, and who is low.

This is why something like save percentage for goalies has low correlation: if you aren't saving pucks, you aren't going to be in the league long enough to be part of the sample.  And this is why strikeout rates have high correlation: you CAN survive in the league if you have a very low and very high K rate.  So, with a large range in talent, then  you need less sample for the signal to get through.

Anyway, so that explains the sack rate stabilizing so fast: it's highly biased on the team's line, and staying away from sacks is not a primary requirement to being a QB (though it is a secondary one).

WAR hammer for nail question

Dave does a good job of contrasting WAR to the other metrics, and why it has particular uses.  My favorite part though is when he dismisses the Pitcher Wins as an answer, since the question is one that no one asks to begin with:

How many times did that pitcher complete at least five innings, leave the game with his team having outscored the opponent through the point at which he was removed, and then watch his relievers finish the game for him without surrendering the lead that his teammates helped create in the first place??

Sabermetric Super Bowl

I don't watch enough football to remember to have Brian's live win probability chart up.  One thing that I like to know is if a team that is trailing has more than a 50% chance of winning.

It's more obvious to see in baseball, where if you are down by 1 in the bottom of the ninth, no outs, and bases loaded, it's the defense that's sweating bullets, not the offense.  But, when it does it flip over to the offense?  Well, it just tips over with runners on first and second, no outs, down by 1, or runner on third, down by 1.  (It's often the case that having runners on first and second is equivalent to just having a runner on third.)

Brian's site is (now) blocked at the office.  Can someone tell me if there was ever a point where the trailing team had more than a 50% chance of winning?

The other fascinating play was at the end, with the safety.  I think the broadcast team did a great job to bring it up at all, and it was interesting to hear their off-the-cuff unprepared analysis for it, saying they wouldn't do it.  But, they totally didn't consider that they could run eight seconds off the clock.  Even without the clock-running, it would seem it might have been more than breakeven to go for it.  I'll wait for Brian's analysis on that too.  But, I thought the director blew it by not showing us the defense formation? from a high view, and showing what the defense was going to do about it.  I think in that case, it demanded a bird's eye view.

Any other high-leverage strategy plays?

Mozeliak talks the numbers game

Blogger Anna gives us his insight:

"There is no perfect stat, but when you look at trying to define Wins Above Replacement, it is a very simple place to grab information and get a feel for it," he said.

There are several versions of WAR out there, and while he looks at all of them, he does have a favorite.

"I use our own internal system, because that's what I'm most familiar with and also in the past five, six years I feel like we've made very good decisions based on it," Mozeliak said. "My confidence in it is very strong."

?

Baseball Bucket List

I don't know that this blogger has the right idea about what a bucket list is.  There should be some level of certainty and planning possible.  Being at a ballpark to witness an? inside-the-parker is a freak occurrence (though, I'll raise those stakes by saying I watched an inside-the-parker walk-off in extra innings... thank you Marquis Grissom!).  And easily my most memorable moment is when (deaf) Curtis Pride got his first MLB hit, and as he's standing on second base, we banged and stomped as loud as we could, on the idea that we could somehow make him hear.  He said that he felt the vibrations of the stadium beneath his feet.  Still, not bucket list.

Anyway, baseball bucket list?  I don't really have a desire to go to every single ballpark, nor to meet any players.  I was at the Cup-clinching game in Montreal 1993. So, maybe go to a Game 7?  But, the reason that 1993 Cup game was memorable was because we won, and I don't know that I'd want on my bucket list to attend a game on the chance they'd win the Cup, only to not win.  Again, I don't think that's bucket list material.

What do you got?

Sunday, February 03, 2013

Lachemann Brothers

?A very nice story on the Lachemann brothers.  I didn't realize this:

“It was the highest up and lowest down in my entire life,” Lachemann

said. “Ten times we had two strikes and couldn’t put the game away.”

Saturday, February 02, 2013

Cross-era comparisons

?I know everyone loves to do it.  You have to choose whether you are comparing two players on their own, or whether you are comparing how the two players would do, if they had access to identical environments (nutritional, equipment, training, etc).  That is, are we transplanting the 1936 version of Jesse Owens, or are we transplanting his grandparents so that Owens would be born at the same time and place as Usain Bolt?

Rally also brought up the following point, which I posted to Bill James:

In football, basketball, hockey, we wouldn't think of comparing the best 2001 team to the best 1954 team, and think that the 1954 team could beat the 2001 team. Someone at my site suggested it's because baseball had an earlier start historically (say 30 years before

basketball and hockey), and so, we need to shift our persepective by 30 years, so that we get to a plateau like we might with baseball. I don't buy that argument in the least. What do you think?

Asked by: tangotiger

Answered: 2/1/2013      

Oh, I certainly buy that argument.    MOST of the improvement in baseball skills occurred before the NFL was organized in 1920 or whenever it was.    Baseball gets better, but the pace at which baseball is improving has certainly been cut down by the passage of time.  

Pre-response to anti-WAR

?Crashburn linked to Caple's sentiments on WAR.

I thought Mark Simon's objection from two years ago is sufficient.  I added a couple of my thoughts at the time.

As far as I can tell, all the anti-WAR sentiment is really missing the forest for the trees.

Friday, February 01, 2013

Flashback: Pedro hits Reggie Sanders, breaks up perfect game

Weirdly, the Reds announcers talked about "no hitter" and "gem".  The MLB person who shows the caption talks about a "no hitter intact".  But it was a perfect game!  Pedro was 22-up, 22-down at that point.  I don't know who those announcers were 19 years ago, but defending Reggie Sanders?

Pitching rotation

Bill James made a proposal on his site about how to change the rotation setup.  Instead of having gone from a 4-man to 5-man, Bill proposed going the other way, down to a 3-man rotation.  Don goes through Bill's comment about PAP in a fair way. 

Anyway, Bill proposed a three-man rotation of 54 starts each, but a ceiling on pitches, much like we saw with the Rockies for three weeks.

When it comes down to it, you can probably make as good a case for a three-man as you can for a 4-man, 5-man, and 6-man rotation.  Or even a mix, so that some guys start every three days and others start every five days, and others every seven days.?  Naturally, the guys starting every three days are going to get pulled far earlier than the other pitchers.

Since every pitcher is different, it's obvious that every pitcher needs to be treated differently.

What will stop any change however is the Won/Loss rule.  You can only get a win as a starting pitcher if you pitch at least five innings, but you can get a loss any time.  Which is of course a silly rule.  So, if you have a starting pitcher scheduled to go for say 60-80 pitches, there's really no reason to make him start the game.  He can just as easily come in relief in the third inning, after the first starting pitcher gets pulled for a pinch hitter.

Anyway, lots of potential crazy setups.

Alou Brothers

A nice history of the Alou brothers.?

When Felipe was managing the Expos, he'd be #1, maybe #2 (Moises Alou might beat him out) in getting the loudest ovations from the fans.  He was the face of the team.  He was fiercely loyal to Montreal, even turning down a deal with the Dodgers to stay in Montreal.  He married a woman from Quebec, and I think he still lives there.

And since I'm reminiscing, hats off to Pedro Martinez, for giving the fans of Montreal a shout-out while champagne was being poured over his head after he won the World Series.  Pedro also returned to Montreal the year after he was traded to Boston, to give a special gift to Felipe.

I love these guys who have a special place in their heart for Montreal.

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Evidence of makeup calls

?A long research piece, which I might get to read at the office tomorrow.

The data shows that there is an overall "opposite effect": "bad" calls

help the parties they were called against; for example, a ball called a

strike will- on average- help the batter get on base at a higher rate

than an at-bat in which the correct call was made, and a strike called a

ball will- on average- lessen the likelihood that a batter reaches

base, favoring the pitcher. This supports previous research that umpires

may utilize "make-up" calls, whether consciously or unconsciously. Data

for this "opposite effect" wanes, or reverses, as the count grows long,

as umpires have less chance to provide a "make-up" call.

iCarly fans more tolerable than Star Trek and baseball fans?

?Taking Jeff's point to its logical conclusion, I must say yes.

Every episode of iCarly starts with the letter i.  Not I, but i, as in lower-case i.  And it's not the stand-alone word I (or i), but the lower-case i attached to the next word.  For example: iSpy a Mean Teacher.  It's cute, or it's silly.  But, really, who cares.

Well, if you go to Jeff's article, you will see Star Trek fans debating the letter I/i.  And Jeff suggests the way we talk about players is really no different.

iAgree with Jeff.

League WAR by age group

Good stuff here.  This is one of those things I like to do as well, especially if trying to see if talent is increasing or decreasing.

?

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Expected Pace

?Jeff took the slowest working pitcher (Papelbon at 31 seconds between pitches) and the slowest working hitter (Pena at 28 seconds) and wondered what happened when they actually faced each other.

There's two schools of thought here: the pitcher controls the pace, and if Papelbon takes 31 seconds, then there's nothing a slow or fast batter is going to do.  It'll take 31 seconds.

The other is that both have an impact.  If let's say the average pace is 22 seconds (guessing), then Papelbon is +9 and Pena is +6, and so the two facing each other would give us +15.  So, we'd expect 22+15 = 37 seconds.

And it seems the second method works best.

FOMC Statements: Then and Now

Just fantastic.  This site is my goto site for market activity analysis.  And Matthew shows exactly why.  He went through the last Fed statement, and the current Fed statement, and looks like he just put it in Word with Tracking, to highlight what was added and what was removed.  It's brilliant in its simplicity and clarity.

Indeed, you can practically see the committee using their last statement as the basis, and then going through each line, and asking "so, should we be a bit more bullish or bearish here?", and making slight modifications as they agree.?

Baseball Farm System Rankings 2013

John Sickels gives us his list.

It's important to note that this is just players in the minor leagues.  As he notes, when Mike Trout gets called up, the ranking for the Angels takes a beating.  And if you trade a prospect for even a young MLB player, you drop down as well.?

Hockey Hall of Stats

Adam turns his view over to hockey.

One thing I've been meaning to do, but maybe Adam will be inspired to do it: how many years do players wait?  The BBWAA is notorious for not having "1st timers".  But, the NHL voters don't see it that way at all.  There was one year where they had five guys that would have gone in the first time, but they have a strict max-4 limit, so one guy (Larionov) had to wait a year.

The Hockey Hall of Fame elects about 25 players every 10 years, which makes it a medium hall, and right around the size that the average Straight Arrow reader expects from baseball.

So, that's what I like about the hockey process:

1. players have a 3-year waitlist, not 5 years (and waive the 3-year rule under exceptional circumstances)

2. deserving players are elected extremely quickly

3. they don't get a year without electing SOMEONE?

4. had active Hall of Famers (unretired Gordie Howe, Mario, Guy Lafleur)

5. you never, and I mean never, have the annual drone of the Jack Morris type of candidate... if a guy like that is on the horizon (Clark Gillies?), he's quietly elected, there may be some consternation, and then it's over and done with... Hall of Fame is really about celebration of players elected, and not hand-wringing about players ignored (Housley, Gilmour, etc)

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Passport photos for 29 cents

?Do you think it's crazy that CVS charges 7.99$ for two passport-sized headshots, when they charge 19 cents online and 29 cents at the kiosk for a single 4x6 standard picture?  Yeah, me too.

Well, here's http://www.epassportphoto.com/ .  While they offer you a paid service (i.e., whatever CVS would otherwise charge you for passport photos), you can get their free service by clicking appropriately.  And what do you end up with?  A perfectly sized passport photo for whatever country you want, and prepared in a 4x6 format.  Just open up a CVSphoto.com account, upload the picture, and, voila, pick up the picture at the store for 19 cents.  (CVS gives you a service charge if you spend less than 5 dollars, so this is all you do, then just bring your flash drive to their Kodak kiosk and pay 29 cents.)

There may have been a time where a pro photog taking your passport pic for 12.99$ made sense.  I don't see that any longer.  The problem is that we only get our passport done every five years, so, it takes a long time to change our habit. 

If you guys have other of these cool services that basically reduces the cost of something by 95%, I'd love to hear about those too.