The annual general managers meetings got off to a strong start when John Travolta and his wife, Kelly Preston, were spotted coming out of the lobby of the headquarters hotel. That was basically it for star power -- except in San Diego and Kansas City, where they're still buzzing over the Terrence Long-for-Darrell May deal.
But not all is lost. Baseball officials discussed a number of pertinent issues, and will continue to talk about deals and meet with agents until they check out of their $455-a-night rooms and go home. As everyone pointed out, Key Biscayne simply laid the foundation for an active Hot Stove experience at the winter meetings in Anaheim in December.
Before the meetings broke, Baseball Insider trolled the lobby of the Ritz-Carlton and surveyed 15 executives on five issues sure to make news this winter. Here are the topics and their responses:
1. If given a choice, which elite first baseman would you sign: Richie Sexson or Carlos Delgado?
Responses: Delgado 10, Sexson 4, one no-decision.
Delgado is 32 years old and fresh off a four-year, $68 million contract with Toronto. He has hit 30 or more homers for eight straight seasons, and surpassed 90 RBI for the past nine. This year, he managed to reach both milestones despite missing a month with a rib injury. After a horrendous first half, he salvaged his free-agent prospects by hitting .305 with 22 homers and 63 RBI following the All-Star break.
Sexson, 29, hit nine homers in 90 at-bats with Arizona before going down for the year with a torn labrum. His health was cited as a major factor by several executives who chose Delgado. "I'd be concerned about Sexson's shoulder after seeing what shoulder injuries can do to power guys," said one.
The Diamondbacks are at least attempting to keep Sexson. He recently turned down a three-year offer for a reported $30 million to re-sign with Arizona. Toronto, in contrast, is resigned to the prospect of Delgado leaving town.
Both players should attract considerable interest. Seattle is hot for Delgado, the Mets are interested in Sexson, and the Orioles might be panting over both. Los Angeles could enter the picture, and the Yankees would love to upgrade at first although there's no way on earth they're ridding themselves of Jason Giambi's contract.
Sexson and Delgado are both high-strikeout guys who can be streaky. Sexson wins points for being younger and a better defensive player. While Delgado has achy knees after a decade on the SkyDome turf, he's regarded as a tougher out and a more patient hitter. He has a career on-base percentage of .392 to .349 for Sexson.
"Sexson is great," said a National League GM. "He's going to hit you 40 home runs. But Delgado is a better hitter. When the game is on the line, he's going to get the RBI for you."
Sexson and Delgado are both solid citizens and good clubhouse guys, although Delgado created a stir this year by going public with his opposition to the war in Iraq. Only one executive raised that topic with Insider.
"I don't really care for Delgado's politics," the official said. "And I think a lot of fans would be alienated by a guy who won't stand for 'God Bless America.' "
2. Where will Carlos Beltran sign and for how much?
Responses: Yankees 8, Angels 3, Cubs 2, Orioles 1, No Earthly Idea 1. Amount: Somewhere between $12-15 million a year.
Beltran is similar in some ways to last year's big free agent, Vladimir Guerrero. He's in the prime of his career at age 27 and is a phenomenal two-way talent. He's also quiet and reserved by nature, well-liked by teammates, and largely anonymous on a national stage.
Here are two notable differences: Beltran hit .435 in the playoffs and tied Barry Bonds' postseason record with eight home runs, so he's shown he can produce in October. And his agent, Scott Boras, will be quick to get the Yankees involved to drive up the price. Last year, it was taken as an article of faith that Guerrero didn't want to play in New York, and his agent, Fern Cuza, did little to publicly dispel that notion.
People around the Astros say Beltran isn't a New York guy that he's temperamentally suited to a more low-key environment than New York. But he's only going to get $100 million-plus in a big-market. The question is whether Beltran is fixated on getting 10 years and nine figures, or if that's strictly a vision of his agent.
"It depends on who works for who," said a National League assistant GM. "If Beltran works for Scott Boras, he's going to be in New York. If Scott works for Beltran, I think he'll wind up somewhere else. I just don't know how much Beltran is going to be involved in the process."
An American League executive thought it was telling when Boras dropped hints that Bernie Williams would move off center field to create a spot for Beltran in the Bronx. "I think he was basically tipping everybody off that the big boys are going to be playing on this one, and Bernie was OK with moving over," said the front office man. "To me, there was an issue there."
While it won't surprise anyone if Boras asks for 10 years and $200 million, most officials think that's pie in the sky. Insider's top estimate for Beltran was seven years at $105 million, or slightly more than the Cardinals paid Albert Pujols last spring.
3. Which superstar is more likely to be dealt in the offseason: Randy Johnson or Sammy Sosa?
Responses: Johnson 11, Sosa 3. (One executive thinks both will go.)
While the Diamondbacks don't have any compelling reason to move Johnson, given he's still at the top of his game at age 41, there's a huge market for him. Any pitcher who goes 16-14 and receives eight first-place votes for the Cy Young award must be doing something right.
"A No. 1 starter is a vital and rare commodity," said an AL front-office man. "There's a lot of pitching available, but it's mostly 3s and 4s and some 2s. But no aces."
The Cubs face an entirely different situation with Sosa. He's slipping as a player, and they'd love to move him. But given his declining performance and the financial burden, there's not much of a market for him.
Finances are a significant factor. Johnson is under contract for one more year at $16.5 million, with $6 million of that total deferred.
Sosa, in contrast, comes with considerable economic baggage. He's signed for $17 million next year, and an $18 million option for 2006 will vest if the Cubs move him. His deal also includes a $3.5 million severance package. An American League GM said that financial component makes Sosa all but "untradeable."
The executives who picked Sosa point out that his relationship with Cubs manager Dusty Baker is frayed and that's putting it mildly. Things got ugly on the final day of the season, when Sosa left Wrigley Field 15 minutes after the first pitch and was docked a day's pay.
"Dusty hates Sammy and Sammy hates Dusty, and if they can find a place to put him, they're going to get rid of him," said an NL general manager.
Another NL exec seconded that emotion. "I just think he's burnt that bridge," the official said. "If the Cubs can get enough for him to make it look palatable to the fans, they're going to do it."
But few teams are clamoring for Sosa. He turns 36 this weekend, hit .253 in 2004 and is now a substandard defensive outfielder and baserunner. When players such as Reggie Sanders and Jeromy Burnitz have provided 30-homer power as free-agent finds in recent years, why deal with the hassle, headaches and expense of trying to acquire Sosa?
4. Will Roger Clemens retire or come back for one more go-around in 2005?
Responses: 12 say Clemens will pitch in 2005, 2 say he'll retire. (The other official polled said Clemens will pitch if Houston signs Beltran and makes other moves to upgrade the club, but will retire if the Astros aren't in a position to contend.)
One thing is certain: If Clemens comes back to pitch, it'll be with Houston. The Astros gave him a flexible travel schedule to allow him to spend more time with his family, and Clemens rewarded the team by going 18-4, posting an 8-1 record after the All-Star break and pocketing his seventh career Cy Young Award.
But Clemens lost the playoff clincher to St. Louis, and no one knows if that'll stick in his craw in the offseason. "As much as he might like to retire, I don't think his competitive nature will let him finish on those terms," said a National League executive.
A return to the Astros would allow Clemens to pitch alongside good buddy Andy Pettitte, who was limited to 83 innings this year because of an elbow injury. But Clemens also wants his mother, Bess, who suffers from emphysema, to be around for his Hall of Fame speech. And if he pitches next season, that's another delay in the five-year clock for Cooperstown to begin ticking.
An American League front office man who heard Clemens do a radio interview after Houston's season finale is convinced he's done. "He sounded to me like a guy who is comfortable walking away at his peak, and is looking forward to the next segment of his life," the executive said.
5. If you were Atlanta general manager John Schuerholz, would you move John Smoltz to the starting rotation or keep him at closer?
Responses: 10 say keep him in the bullpen, 5 say start him.
This decision won't take place in a vacuum. The Braves have three free-agent starters in Russ Ortiz, Jaret Wright and Paul Byrd. If they can't re-sign any of them, they'll have to consider moving Smoltz to the rotation out of necessity.
There's also an economic element involved: Smoltz, whose base salary is $12 million, has a clause in his contract that allows him to earn an additional $100,000 per start. That's an extra $3 million that might prevent Schuerholz from filling another hole on his roster.
Strictly from a baseball standpoint, the people who advocated keeping Smoltz in the bullpen expressed three opinions: 1) As a closer, he has the ability to help Atlanta win five times a week, rather than once or twice; 2) he turns 38 in May and hasn't been a full-time starter since 1999; and 3) while he's stayed healthy in the bullpen, there's a greater chance he'll break down in the rotation.
Smoltz has made it clear he prefers starting. "As good as he is as a closer, he's never really embraced going to the bullpen," said one executive, who joked that Smoltz also has an easier time fitting golf into his schedule as a starter.
A National League official who favors starting Smoltz observed that even an average closer will convert 85 percent of his save opportunities, and that it's much more difficult to find a starter who can win 16-18 games. But the biggest issue is health.
"There's a risk involved with taking a guy who's 38 years old and has pitched about 70 innings every year, then suddenly asking him to pitch 220 innings," said an American League assistant GM. "I'm not sure that's a great thing to do."
Jerry Crasnick is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He can be reached via e-mail.