To say that the Seattle Mariners have disappointed this year would be a monumental understatement. Expected to compete for the division title on the back of a pitching rotation anchored by Cy Young contenders Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee and a defense with a number of Gold Glove candidates, Seattle instead has gone 49-76 and is 12 games behind the third-place Angels.
How, then, did the Mariners end up where they are today? The obvious answer is the offense. Although the offense was never expected to be among the best in the league, the general thought was that the team would at least score enough to support the excellent pitching and defense. Instead, the Mariners have scored 3.29 runs per game. The last American League team to score fewer runs per game was the 1981 Toronto Blue Jays, who averaged 3.10 at a time when an average team scored only 4.07 runs per game. That number is 4.42 this year.
So, by how much have the team's bats underperformed expectations? And how does this compare historically?
To answer this question, I used the historical Marcel projection database that sabermetrician Jeff Sackmann recently created. Marcel is a simple projection system originally created by Tom Tango based on a player's most recent three seasons, age and regression to the mean. Using this database, I went through every team's offense from the past 40 years to see how the actual offenses compared to their expectations, taking into consideration league offenses, mix of players and actual playing time received. The "performance ratio" is simply the ratio between runs expected before the season and the actual runs scored.
As it turns out, the 2010 Mariners offense is one of the biggest underperformers of the divisional era, behind only three teams and the biggest underperformer in the past 15 years. It isn't all bad, however -- the rest of the top-10 disappointments had fairly quick reversals of fortune, averaging a 0.6 run/game improvement and a nine-win improvement a season later.
Over the long haul, teams tend to trend toward their expectations, which is good news for the Mariners. Stat-heads call this phenomenon regression to the mean, and Bill James called this the Plexiglas Principle. The Mariners won't set any batting records anytime soon, but it's a pretty good bet that whoever the first baseman and DH are in 2011, they'll beat the .639 OPS that Mariners first basemen have hit and the .576 OPS that Mariners designated hitters have combined for this season. How do some of the key underachievers look for 2011?
Casey Kotchman
The Mariners aren't the first team Kotchman has disappointed. Kotchman was drafted in the first round by the Angels in 2001 and although he never really developed much in the way of power, scouts hoped that, to go along with 10-15 home runs a year, he would hit .300 and play excellent defense and give the team a 21st-century version of Mark Grace. The Angels moved Darin Erstad back to center field to make room for Kotchman, but a case of mononucleosis ruined his 2006 season. After a .296/.372/.467 season in 2007, Kotchman looked to be fulfilling some of those expectations, but he has seen his OPS decline every year since then, from .840 to .738 to .721 to this year's utility-infielder-esque .644. Just looking at the players Kotchman has been traded for shows just how far his stock has dropped in what are supposed to be his prime years -- from Mark Teixeira to Adam LaRoche and, last year, to Bill Hall.
Kotchman's $3.5 million makes him a big non-tender candidate this offseason as the team can't offer him less than $2.8 million in arbitration. If he does come back, he's a decent bet to play better, though not necessarily at the level of a solid starter.
2011 ZiPS projection: .257/.325/.385, 10 HR, 58 RBI
Chone Figgins
The other Angel in the infield, Figgins might be an even bigger disappointment than Kotchman. Figgins is a better player than Kotchman, but the team expected a lot more from the former in the first season of a four-year, $36 million deal. There was always concern that Figgins might decline toward the end of the deal, but I doubt anybody expected Figgins to hit like Luis Castillo right from the start. What cannot be known is how much Figgins' poor season has to do with the Jose Lopez-Figgins position swap before the season. Moving a Gold Glove-worthy third baseman back to second, a position he hadn't played regularly in years, might have been too much of a fantasy baseball move, and it might not be a coincidence that Lopez's offense dropped off a cliff, as well.
Figgins is a pretty good candidate to have a better 2011. His .309 BABIP this year is 30 points off his career total, and the one thing that drives his batting average, his speed, is intact. Fast players tend to age well, so Figgins shouldn't be done at 32.
2011 ZiPS projection: .273/.366/.345, 30 SB
Jose Lopez
Lopez isn't known for his plate discipline, which is worse than Elvis Presley's in the 1970s, but after 42 home runs the past two seasons combined, the team reasonably expected him to be a plus offensively this year. Instead, he has a .604 OPS and only seven home runs. There's no chance that Lopez will turn into an OBP god, but, at 26, he should bounce back considerably in 2011.
2011 ZiPS projection: .271/.304/.410, 16 HR, 77 RBI
Milton Bradley
The Mariners picked up Bradley for Carlos Silva in an offseason problem-for-problem trade, reasoning that manager Don Wakamatsu had a history of dealing well with Bradley, one of the most difficult players in baseball. The plan worked partially in that dealing with Bradley didn't become a major headache for the team. Problem is, Bradley has been plagued by knee problems and hasn't hit at all. By the time May rolled around, the Mariners probably would have been happier if Bradley had been a head case with an .800 OPS. Bradley's not young, and his knee might keep him a DH for good, but he's likely to be more useful next year.
2011 ZiPS projection: .255/.363/.432, 13 HR, 47 RBI
Franklin Gutierrez
Although Gutierrez hasn't been as terrible as some of his teammates, his .251/.314/.368 line this season isn't what one would expect as a follow-up to a breakout 2009 season in which he hit 18 homers and was arguably the best defensive player in baseball. Like Lopez, Gutierrez is young enough that 2010 shouldn't be more than a hiccup.
2011 ZiPS projection: .272/.332/.423, 16 HR, 66 RBI
Seattle's turnaround didn't come soon enough to save hitting coach Alan Cockrell, let go in May, or recently fired manager Wakamatsu, but it should happen in time to prevent Mariners fans from watching another 90-loss team in 2011.
Dan Szymborski is the editor of Baseball Think Factory and contributes regularly to ESPN Insider.