General-Purpose Methods for Simulating Survival Data for Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations

Mathyn Vervaart, Eline Aas, Karl P. Claxton, Mark Strong, Nicky J. Welton, Torbjørn Wisløff and Anna Heath
Additional contact information
Mathyn Vervaart: Department of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Karl P. Claxton: Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
Mark Strong: School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
Nicky J. Welton: School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Torbjørn Wisløff: Health Services Research Unit, Akershus University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
Anna Heath: Child Health Evaluative Sciences, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada

Medical Decision Making, 2023, vol. 43, issue 5, 595-609

Abstract: Background Expected value of sample information (EVSI) quantifies the expected value to a decision maker of reducing uncertainty by collecting additional data. EVSI calculations require simulating plausible data sets, typically achieved by evaluating quantile functions at random uniform numbers using standard inverse transform sampling (ITS). This is straightforward when closed-form expressions for the quantile function are available, such as for standard parametric survival models, but these are often unavailable when assuming treatment effect waning and for flexible survival models. In these circumstances, the standard ITS method could be implemented by numerically evaluating the quantile functions at each iteration in a probabilistic analysis, but this greatly increases the computational burden. Thus, our study aims to develop general-purpose methods that standardize and reduce the computational burden of the EVSI data-simulation step for survival data. Methods We developed a discrete sampling method and an interpolated ITS method for simulating survival data from a probabilistic sample of survival probabilities over discrete time units. We compared the general-purpose and standard ITS methods using an illustrative partitioned survival model with and without adjustment for treatment effect waning. Results The discrete sampling and interpolated ITS methods agree closely with the standard ITS method, with the added benefit of a greatly reduced computational cost in the scenario with adjustment for treatment effect waning. Conclusions We present general-purpose methods for simulating survival data from a probabilistic sample of survival probabilities that greatly reduce the computational burden of the EVSI data-simulation step when we assume treatment effect waning or use flexible survival models. The implementation of our data-simulation methods is identical across all possible survival models and can easily be automated from standard probabilistic decision analyses. Highlights Expected value of sample information (EVSI) quantifies the expected value to a decision maker of reducing uncertainty through a given data collection exercise, such as a randomized clinical trial. In this article, we address the problem of computing EVSI when we assume treatment effect waning or use flexible survival models, by developing general-purpose methods that standardize and reduce the computational burden of the EVSI data-generation step for survival data. We developed 2 methods for simulating survival data from a probabilistic sample of survival probabilities over discrete time units, a discrete sampling method and an interpolated inverse transform sampling method, which can be combined with a recently proposed nonparametric EVSI method to accurately estimate EVSI for collecting survival data. Our general-purpose data-simulation methods greatly reduce the computational burden of the EVSI data-simulation step when we assume treatment effect waning or use flexible survival models. The implementation of our data-simulation methods is identical across all possible survival models and can therefore easily be automated from standard probabilistic decision analyses.

Keywords: economic evaluation model; expected value of sample information; simulation methods; survival data; value of information (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:43:y:2023:i:5:p:595-609

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X231162069

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