The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis

Rehab Osman Mohamed Osman

Economics PhD Theses from Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School

Abstract: This thesis examines the potential impacts of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). It provides a quantitative assessment of the prospective implications for welfare, output and trade structures, resource allocation, prices and fiscal revenue. The thesis undertakes country- and sector-specific analyses using the multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) GLOBE model. The model is calibrated to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database- version 7 for 2004. Different scenarios are implemented in order to simulate the alternative EU-SADC EPA scenarios in addition to their WTO-compatible alternatives. The thesis aims to contribute novel insights to the ongoing debate on the EU-SADC EPAs. It provides detailed country- and sector-specific impact projections within an internally consistent modelling framework. Furthermore, it contemplates the other WTO-compatible arrangements for SADC-EU trade in the case of not signing final EPAs. The simulation results inform answers for several research questions, as follows. Who gains and who loses from the EU-SADC EPAs? Do the agreements help SADC to effectively integrate into the world economy? What type of structural change might SADC experience under the EU-SADC EPA scenarios? How significant are potential adjustment costs for the SADC members likely to be? Are the WTO-compatible alternatives preferable for SADC members compared to the EU-SADC EPAs scenario? The simulation results suggest that a comprehensive EPA scenario is welfare-improving for many SADC members. The agreements, however, do not serve as a stumbling block towards more integration for SADC members into the world markets. Overall, SADC production structures become more concentrated in export-oriented sectors. These structural changes are accompanied by a high degree of adjustment in factor markets and substantial fiscal losses. A comprehensive EPA scenario is the best option vis-à-vis the WTO-compatible alternatives for SADC non-LDCs, whereas the results for SADC LDCs are mixed.

Date: 2012-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-int
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sus:susphd:0412

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