Banks, domestic debt intermediation and confidence crises: the recent Brazilian experience
Afonso S. Bevilaqua () and
Marcio Garcia
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Afonso S. Bevilaqua: Department of Economics PUC-Rio
No 407, Textos para discussão from Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil)
Abstract:
This paper examines the recent evolution of the Brazilian public domestic debt and interprets it in light of the confidence crisis literature. The analysis of the recent developments in the Brazilian public domestic debt market shows that the likelihood of a default must not be assessed only using simple summary aggregate measures of public domestic debt size and maturity, but must also take into consideration other structural aspects. Our analysis emphasizes the two main pillars of the Brazilian public domestic debt market: home-bias and the role of the banking sector in intermediating the debt. Evidence from yields of a perfectly indexed bond shows that the rollover premium was very small when the devaluation occurred, and is still fairly small by October, 1999, indicating that the rollover of the public domestic debt has not, so far, constituted a serious problem. Positive prospects for the public domestic debt market will depend, however, on the Brazilian government maintaining the current fiscal austerity program.
JEL-codes: E65 H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 1999-11
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rio:texdis:407
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