Climate variability impacts on agricultural output in East Africa

Jean Luc Mubenga-Tshitaka, Johane Dikgang, John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba and Dambala Gelo

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper investigates whether the effects of weather variability in temperature and precipitation on agricultural output are short- or long-run. In fact, the study addresses two policy-relevant questions: (1) Does temperature or precipitation variability affect agricultural output, and if so, is the effect short- or long-term? (2) Is the effect of weather variability on agricultural output homogenous across East Africa? However, there is clear evidence of cross-country dependency. If cross-sectional dependency exists among the cross-sectional countries under investigation, the first generation of panel data techniques is not applicable. We use data from the FAOSTAT for 1961 to 2016 for East African countries, while climate-related variables (temperature and precipitation) are from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). We find that variability in temperature has a long-run impact on agricultural output, while variability in precipitation has a short-run effect. However, after considering the heterogeneity among countries, there is evidence of the long-run effect of precipitation variability in some countries.

Keywords: Climate variability; agricultural output; cross-sectional dependency; heterogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q2 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-11-20
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-agr, nep-dev and nep-env
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Related works:
Journal Article: Climate variability impacts on agricultural output in East Africa (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:110771

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